CALIBRATE BASEBALLBack to the recordgame prep, generated 2026-09-16 01:09 UTC
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians
2026-09-15, 6:40 PM ET, Progressive Field.
Chris Murphy (L) against
Foster Griffin (L).
Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published
boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-09-14.
What decides tonight
Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.
1Our bats highest board probability Miguel Vargas 68%, lowest Luisangel Acuña 51% (17 points of spread across the nine). see the grid
2Their bats highest board probability Jo Adell 16%. see the grid
3Pen posture Us: 1 on back-to-back days, 2 threw 35+ last time. Cleveland Guardians: 1 threw 35+ last time. see bullpens
Their starterFoster Griffin, board E[K] 4.5 — 29 apps, median 24 BF.
Run environment board total 9.04, P(over 8.5) 51%. Clears its pre-registered floor only; not distinguishable from climatology, and carries a documented −0.29-run level bias.
Air 84°F · 13 mph blowing out to center · air 5.0% thinner than a neutral sea-level night. Shown as conditions, not as an edge: this engine's weather layer measured a CRPS change of −0.003 on the runs backtest, which is not distinguishable from zero.
Foster Griffin (LHP)
2669 pitches, K% 27% vs LHB (182 BF) / 20% vs RHB (492 BF)
29 apps · median 24 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 4) · exits at 95 pitches (IQR 86–100, 29 starts) · fastball -0.7 mph late (5 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%4422%
BB%816%
CSW%5527%
Whiff%2820%
Chase%6432%
xwOBA vs43.320
Hard-hit%5537%
GB%6945%
1st-pitch strike%4761%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.5
recent starts, K (n=5)
608/18 SF
408/23 COL
408/29 KC
309/04 DET
409/09 BAL
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
cutter
875
26%
35%
88.5
+7
-5
2245
16%
28%
33%
25%
56%
.335
-1.3
4-seam
437
17%
16%
91.5
+16
+4
2089
14%
29%
14%
23%
47%
.323
+0.3
sweeper
375
27%
9%
80.1
-1
-17
2530
28%
31%
33%
16%
38%
.353
+0.7
changeup
303
0%
15%
82.4
+7
+14
1860
32%
23%
32%
9%
28%
.276
-0.5
sinker
273
20%
7%
91.4
+10
+15
2040
14%
26%
32%
4%
41%
.310
-1.5
curveball
247
6%
10%
77.8
-14
-9
2356
23%
29%
39%
8%
33%
.366
+3.7
splitter
157
4%
7%
81.3
+1
+1
1332
26%
16%
44%
16%
20%
.216
-0.0
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations, catcher view
cutter4-seamsweeper
Movement
How to attack
Hunt the cutter early: 30% of his first pitches, only 16% whiffs, 60% in-zone on 0-0.
Vs lefties he leans sweeper (27% of pitches to that side).
K rate splits 27% vs LHB / 20% vs RHB: the right-handed side of the platoon wears him better.
Chris Murphy (LHP)
568 pitches, K% 24% overall (141 BF; split withheld, short side only 69 BF)
Opener usage: in a typical outing he does not get through the order once (31 appearances, median 4 batters, deepest 2×). Prep the second and third look against the bullpen, not this arsenal — see Bullpens.
31 apps · median 4 BF · reaches the order 1.0× (max 2) · exit pitch count withheld, only 2 start(s). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%6424%
BB%2411%
CSW%5727%
Whiff%8528%
Chase%3729%
xwOBA vs83.285
Hard-hit%7734%
GB%429%
1st-pitch strike%5262%
recent starts, K (n=2) last start 07/05, 72 days ago
206/24 CLE
107/05 CLE
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
188
30%
37%
96.3
+16
+8
2400
23%
23%
36%
34%
47%
.302
+1.2
slider
167
36%
23%
89.4
+6
-4
2324
30%
29%
25%
16%
54%
.380
-0.9
curveball
136
17%
31%
78.0
-12
-15
2578
36%
35%
29%
28%
56%
.190
-1.5
sweeper
30
10%
0%
80.3
+4
-17
2420
30%
17%
5%
12%
·
·
·
changeup
20
0%
7%
85.8
+3
+16
1720
·
30%
·
6%
·
·
·
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seamslidercurveball
Movement
Attack plan vs Cleveland Guardians
Slider/curveball: top breaking whiffs are Bailey (38%), Lowe (36%).
Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Adell (48%), Rocchio (37%).
Careful with Kwan: 91% contact, 13% K rate vs LHP; pitch to contact at the edges.
White Sox bats vs Foster Griffin
Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
xwOBA
K%
Chase%
Contact%
HH%
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Chase Meidroth (R)
166
.351
18%
28%
84%
39%
64%
11%
≈ n203
2
Randal Grichuk (R)
156
.366
24%
36%
81%
52%
58%
15%
≈ n105
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
188
.435
17%
22%
85%
55%
68%
16%
≈ n217
4
Munetaka Murakami (L)
147
.342
37%
21%
60%
60%
63%
18%
≈ n231
5
Braden Montgomery (S)
92
.280
28%
33%
70%
37%
·
·
≈ n222
6
Sam Antonacci (L)
105
.291
21%
24%
88%
22%
65%
7%
≈ n185
7
Kyle Teel (L)
23
.263
39%
37%
60%
38%
·
·
≈ n53
8
Colson Montgomery (L)
181
.326
29%
31%
69%
37%
·
·
≈ n244
9
Tristan Peters (L)
58
.300
19%
22%
77%
21%
64%
17%
≈ n190
Cleveland Guardians bats, where our staff attacks
Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
FB whiff
BRK whiff
OFF whiff
xwOBA
Chase%
Contact%
1st-pitch swing
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Steven Kwan (L)
182
4%
18%
20%
.318
20%
91%
9% n182
69%
5%
≈ n196
2
José Ramírez (S)
142
8%
12%
16%
.384
29%
89%
18% n142
66%
11%
≈ n185
3
Jo Adell (R)
167
19%
33%
48%
.395
37%
71%
37% n167
64%
16%
≈ n250
4
Travis Bazzana (L)
142
16%
31%
·
.266
24%
78%
31% n142
60%
10%
≈ n167
5
Nathaniel Lowe (L)
44
20%
36%
·
.256
38%
72%
·
62%
12%
≈ n180
6
Angel Genao (S)
35
15%
·
·
.290
29%
78%
·
62%
9%
≈ n148
7
Patrick Bailey (S)
55
19%
38%
·
.282
26%
71%
·
64%
15%
≈ n114
8
Petey Halpin (L)
39
28%
33%
·
.177
34%
71%
·
54%
10%
≈ n96
9
Brayan Rocchio (S)
180
14%
27%
37%
.288
34%
78%
33% n180
62%
10%
≈ n171
Cleveland Guardians hitters, one card each
One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.
1
Steven Kwan (L)
P(1+ hit) 69% · P(1+ HR) 5%
FB4%
BRK18%
OFF20%
vs LHP 0.318 xwOBA, K 13% (182 PA)
2
José Ramírez (S)
P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 11%
FB8%
BRK12%
OFF16%
vs LHP 0.384 xwOBA, K 7% (142 PA)
3
Jo Adell (R)
P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 16%
FB19%
BRK33%
OFF48%
vs LHP 0.395 xwOBA, K 23% (167 PA)
4
Travis Bazzana (L)
P(1+ hit) 60% · P(1+ HR) 10%
FB16%
BRK31%
OFF·
vs LHP 0.266 xwOBA, K 25% (142 PA)
5
Nathaniel Lowe (L)
P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 12%
FB20%
BRK36%
OFF·
vs LHP 0.256 xwOBA, K 23% (44 PA)
6
Angel Genao (S)
P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 9%
FB15%
BRK·
OFF·
only 35 PA vs LHP — too few to split
7
Patrick Bailey (S)
P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 15%
FB19%
BRK38%
OFF·
vs LHP 0.282 xwOBA, K 31% (55 PA)
8
Petey Halpin (L)
P(1+ hit) 54% · P(1+ HR) 10%
FB28%
BRK33%
OFF·
only 39 PA vs LHP — too few to split
9
Brayan Rocchio (S)
P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 10%
FB14%
BRK27%
OFF37%
vs LHP 0.288 xwOBA, K 16% (180 PA)
Matchups: CWS hitters vs Foster Griffin
Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Chase Meidroth
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 64% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
1 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
2. Randal Grichuk
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.635 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (16 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 15% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
3. Miguel Vargas
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.664 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 68% to get a hit and 16% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
0 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
4. Munetaka Murakami
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.426 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.309 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 18% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
0 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
5. Braden Montgomery
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
6. Sam Antonacci
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 65% to get a hit and 7% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
7. Kyle Teel
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
8. Colson Montgomery
Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker off the plate on 9% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 38% of the time there, against 22% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (36 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.453 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.309 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
0 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
9. Tristan Peters
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 64% to get a hit and 17% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
Cleveland Guardians: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Kyle Teel — runners went 49-for-61 against him (20% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Steven Kwan (L)
27.0 ft/s
4.7% (26/550)
holds
+7 LF
2
José Ramírez (S)
27.6 ft/s
15.6% (64/396)
runner
+5 3B
3
Jo Adell (R)
28.1 ft/s
2.5% (8/351)
holds
-4 RF
4
Travis Bazzana (L)
28.4 ft/s
7.9% (15/182)
occasional
-5 2B
5
Nathaniel Lowe (L)
25.6 ft/s
0.6% (1/319)
holds
·
6
Angel Genao (S)
·
3.1% (1/48)
holds
·
7
Patrick Bailey (S)
25.3 ft/s
1.9% (4/244)
holds
·
8
Petey Halpin (L)
28.4 ft/s
10.9% (8/62)
occasional
·
9
Brayan Rocchio (S)
27.4 ft/s
9.3% (28/292)
occasional
+10 SS
Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Patrick Bailey — runners went 93-for-117 against him (21% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Chase Meidroth (R)
27.2 ft/s
3.2% (14/448)
holds
+4 2B
2
Randal Grichuk (R)
27.3 ft/s
1.5% (1/121)
holds
·
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
28.3 ft/s
4.9% (20/407)
holds
-2 3B
4
Munetaka Murakami (L)
27.1 ft/s
1.9% (3/192)
holds
+0 1B
5
Braden Montgomery (S)
28.5 ft/s
1.6% (1/115)
holds
·
6
Sam Antonacci (L)
28.2 ft/s
8.1% (18/214)
occasional
-5 LF
7
Kyle Teel (L)
27.0 ft/s
1.7% (2/165)
holds
·
8
Colson Montgomery (L)
26.6 ft/s
0.8% (1/236)
holds
+6 SS
9
Tristan Peters (L)
28.7 ft/s
4.0% (6/158)
holds
+9 CF
Bullpens
Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three
most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates
percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.