Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians

2026-09-16, 1:10 PM ET, Progressive Field. Anthony Kay (L) against Parker Messick (L). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-09-15.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

Parker Messick (LHP)

2708 pitches, K% 24% vs LHB (187 BF) / 27% vs RHB (498 BF)

29 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 4) · exits at 95 pitches (IQR 88–98, 29 starts) · fastball +0.2 mph late (24 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%7526%
BB%797%
CSW%5027%
Whiff%5323%
Chase%5731%
xwOBA vs89.274
Hard-hit%8633%
GB%6444%
1st-pitch strike%4261%
published K forecast: E[K] 6.5
recent starts, K (n=5)
1008/19
SF
408/24
LAA
508/30
KC
1209/05
DET
509/11
MIN

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam111539%42%94.3+17+5217723%30%29%44%50%.252-2.4
changeup6278%29%85.9+2+15185434%23%42%36%24%.209-0.4
sinker41128%11%92.7+10+1320647%23%23%7%59%.356-2.9
curveball2417%10%79.2-6-1422879%31%20%5%26%.322+2.1
slider17416%3%87.1+4-6237028%25%26%6%32%.397+2.0
cutter1342%6%90.5+10-2214924%21%21%2%·.329+2.0

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

4-seam
changeup
sinker

Movement

4-seam: +17 IVB, +5 HBchangeup: +2 IVB, +15 HBsinker: +10 IVB, +13 HBcurveball: -6 IVB, -14 HBslider: +4 IVB, -6 HBcutter: +10 IVB, -2 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

How to attack

  • Vs righties he leans changeup (29% of pitches to that side).
  • Lay off the changeup below the zone: 34% whiffs, only 28% of them are strikes.
  • Hunt the sinker early: 20% of his first pitches, only 7% whiffs, 58% in-zone on 0-0.

Anthony Kay (LHP)

2583 pitches, K% 27% vs LHB (173 BF) / 15% vs RHB (481 BF)

30 apps · median 22 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 89 pitches (IQR 84–92, 28 starts) · fastball -0.7 mph late (16 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%2218%
BB%618%
CSW%2426%
Whiff%4022%
Chase%7332%
xwOBA vs22.343
Hard-hit%3939%
GB%6244%
1st-pitch strike%3259%
published K forecast: E[K] 3.8
recent starts, K (n=5)
608/20
ATL
408/25
TEX
508/31
HOU
309/05
MIN
209/11
STL

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
sweeper58330%20%82.7+0-13244133%34%23%16%32%.322+0.6
4-seam58216%25%95.8+15+7234917%24%33%26%42%.364+0.3
sinker45036%11%95.2+5+16226315%27%36%14%58%.349-0.4
cutter43611%19%91.7+7-1239217%22%32%10%30%.437+0.2
changeup3680%19%86.1+0+14174529%19%37%17%17%.257+1.0
slider1646%6%86.3-4-4256327%20%44%17%25%.287+1.9

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations and movement (4 charts)
sweeper
4-seam
sinker

Movement

sweeper: +0 IVB, -13 HB4-seam: +15 IVB, +7 HBsinker: +5 IVB, +16 HBcutter: +7 IVB, -1 HBchangeup: +0 IVB, +14 HBslider: -4 IVB, -4 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

Attack plan vs Cleveland Guardians

  • Sweeper/slider: top breaking whiffs are Lowe (34%), Adell (33%).
  • Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Adell (48%), Rocchio (37%).
  • Careful with Kwan: 91% contact, 13% K rate vs LHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Parker Messick

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAxwOBAK%Chase%Contact%HH%P(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Chase Meidroth (R)169.34918%28%84%39%62%10%n205
2Randal Grichuk (R)159.36724%37%81%52%60%12%n117
3Miguel Vargas (R)191.43217%21%85%55%66%11%n218
4Tommy Pham (R)12··29%71%·52%10%·
5Kyle Teel (L)24.28138%36%62%38%56%10%n58
6Brenton Doyle (R)82.26629%37%68%38%52%11%▼ -11% n67
7Munetaka Murakami (L)150.34037%20%60%60%··n233
8Sam Antonacci (L)108.29021%25%87%22%··n189
9Tristan Peters (L)61.29721%22%77%21%62%12%n188

Cleveland Guardians bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAFB whiffBRK whiffOFF whiffxwOBAChase%Contact%1st-pitch swingP(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Steven Kwan (L)1844%18%20%.32020%91%9% n18470%4%n198
2José Ramírez (S)1438%12%16%.38129%89%18% n14369%19%n187
3Jo Adell (R)16819%33%48%.40537%71%36% n16868%15%n247
4Travis Bazzana (L)14316%31%·.26524%78%31% n14362%10%n167
5Nathaniel Lowe (L)4520%34%·.25037%73%···n182
6Angel Genao (S)3515%··.29029%78%·64%8%n144
7Austin Hedges (R)11216%24%24%.31525%81%37% n11257%12%n77
8Petey Halpin (L)4028%32%·.17834%71%·55%10%n95
9Brayan Rocchio (S)18115%27%37%.28734%78%33% n18163%10%n179

Cleveland Guardians hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

1

Steven Kwan (L)

P(1+ hit) 70% · P(1+ HR) 4%

FB4%
BRK18%
OFF20%

vs LHP 0.320 xwOBA, K 13% (184 PA)

2

José Ramírez (S)

P(1+ hit) 69% · P(1+ HR) 19%

FB8%
BRK12%
OFF16%

vs LHP 0.381 xwOBA, K 7% (143 PA)

3

Jo Adell (R)

P(1+ hit) 68% · P(1+ HR) 15%

FB19%
BRK33%
OFF48%

vs LHP 0.405 xwOBA, K 23% (168 PA)

4

Travis Bazzana (L)

P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB16%
BRK31%
OFF·

vs LHP 0.265 xwOBA, K 25% (143 PA)

5

Nathaniel Lowe (L)

FB20%
BRK34%
OFF·

vs LHP 0.250 xwOBA, K 22% (45 PA)

6

Angel Genao (S)

P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 8%

FB15%
BRK·
OFF·

only 35 PA vs LHP — too few to split

7

Austin Hedges (R)

P(1+ hit) 57% · P(1+ HR) 12%

FB16%
BRK24%
OFF24%

vs LHP 0.315 xwOBA, K 11% (112 PA)

8

Petey Halpin (L)

P(1+ hit) 55% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB28%
BRK32%
OFF·

vs LHP 0.178 xwOBA, K 25% (40 PA)

9

Brayan Rocchio (S)

P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB15%
BRK27%
OFF37%

vs LHP 0.287 xwOBA, K 15% (181 PA)

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Parker Messick

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Chase Meidroth

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 9 lifetime. At 9 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

2. Randal Grichuk

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 16% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +6 points. (15 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.635 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (16 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

3 for 9 lifetime. At 9 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

3. Miguel Vargas

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.519 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.261 league average in that spot. (14 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 66% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 9 lifetime. At 9 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

4. Tommy Pham

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 52% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

5. Kyle Teel

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 56% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

6. Brenton Doyle

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.464 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (11 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 52% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

7. Munetaka Murakami

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.426 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.310 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)

No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.

1 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

8. Sam Antonacci

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.

0 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

9. Tristan Peters

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

0 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

Cleveland Guardians: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Kyle Teel — runners went 49-for-61 against him (20% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Steven Kwan (L)27.0 ft/s4.7% (26/553)holds+7 LF
2José Ramírez (S)27.6 ft/s15.5% (64/397)runner+5 3B
3Jo Adell (R)28.1 ft/s2.5% (8/351)holds-4 RF
4Travis Bazzana (L)28.4 ft/s7.9% (15/182)occasional-5 2B
5Nathaniel Lowe (L)25.6 ft/s0.6% (1/320)holds·
6Angel Genao (S)·3.1% (1/48)holds·
7Austin Hedges (R)24.5 ft/s2.5% (3/147)holds·
8Petey Halpin (L)28.4 ft/s10.9% (8/62)occasional·
9Brayan Rocchio (S)27.4 ft/s9.2% (28/294)occasional+10 SS

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Austin Hedges — runners went 44-for-56 against him (21% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Chase Meidroth (R)27.2 ft/s3.2% (14/449)holds+4 2B
2Randal Grichuk (R)27.3 ft/s1.5% (1/123)holds·
3Miguel Vargas (R)28.3 ft/s4.9% (20/408)holds-2 3B
4Tommy Pham (R)·2.1% (3/177)holds·
5Kyle Teel (L)27.0 ft/s1.7% (2/168)holds·
6Brenton Doyle (R)28.7 ft/s13.7% (33/227)runner·
7Munetaka Murakami (L)27.1 ft/s1.9% (3/193)holds+0 1B
8Sam Antonacci (L)28.2 ft/s8.0% (18/216)occasional-5 LF
9Tristan Peters (L)28.7 ft/s3.9% (6/160)holds+9 CF

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms
Reliever09/1309/1409/15 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)149·1322p/12g22%20%.3084-seam 91 (62%) · changeup 80 (24%)
Hagen Smith (L)·26·1254p/10g39%34%.2424-seam 94 (51%) · slider 83 (33%)
Grant Taylor (R)··27today231p/11g32%26%.2704-seam 98 (32%) · curveball 84 (25%)
Sean Newcomb (L)···6 heavy219p/6g22%21%.3104-seam 95 (40%) · slurve 83 (26%)
Tyler Schweitzer (L)···4206p/7g12%19%.367slider 88 (41%) · 4-seam 93 (32%)
Jordan Hicks (R)···3147p/7g28%25%.275sinker 100 (39%) · 4-seam 99 (30%)
Bryan Hudson (L)··10today111p/9g22%21%.2714-seam 91 (64%) · sweeper 79 (36%)
Huascar Brazobán (R)···2076p/5g21%24%.295sinker 97 (49%) · changeup 91 (41%)
Cleveland Guardians bullpen 8 arms
Reliever09/1309/1409/15 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Matt Festa (R)21··2209p/11g25%24%.2964-seam 93 (51%) · sweeper 84 (44%)
Tim Herrin (L)·1824today B2B209p/13g23%29%.305curveball 80 (32%) · sinker 93 (27%)
Craig Yoho (R)··20today195p/11g25%26%.313changeup 79 (66%) · 4-seam 95 (17%)
Cade Smith (R)··16today189p/12g35%31%.2704-seam 98 (71%) · splitter 88 (24%)
Hunter Gaddis (R)8·20today176p/14g23%27%.302slider 90 (60%) · 4-seam 95 (22%)
Erik Sabrowski (L)5·21today144p/11g37%31%.2614-seam 94 (53%) · slider 87 (31%)
Slade Cecconi (R)·41·1 heavy126p/3g19%18%.3374-seam 96 (32%) · cutter 90 (31%)
Logan Allen (L)···1599p/4g20%19%.315cutter 84 (28%) · sweeper 77 (23%)