CALIBRATE BASEBALLBack to the recordgame prep, generated 2026-09-17 22:09 UTC
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
2026-09-17, 7:40 PM ET, Rate Field.
Erick Fedde (R) against
Framber Valdez (L).
Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published
boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-09-16.
What decides tonight
Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.
1Their bats highest board probability Riley Greene 18%. see the grid
2Our bats highest board probability Miguel Vargas 68%, lowest Brenton Doyle 52% (16 points of spread across the nine). see the grid
3Pen posture Us: no flags. Detroit Tigers: 1 threw 35+ last time. see bullpens
Their starterFramber Valdez, board E[K] 4.3 — 29 apps, median 25 BF.
Run environment board total 9.03, P(over 8.5) 51%. Clears its pre-registered floor only; not distinguishable from climatology, and carries a documented −0.29-run level bias.
Air 68°F · 7 mph blowing out to center · air 2.2% thinner than a neutral sea-level night. Shown as conditions, not as an edge: this engine's weather layer measured a CRPS change of −0.003 on the runs backtest, which is not distinguishable from zero.
Framber Valdez (LHP)
2594 pitches, K% 24% vs LHB (168 BF) / 15% vs RHB (545 BF)
29 apps · median 25 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 4) · exits at 91 pitches (IQR 87–96, 29 starts) · fastball -0.4 mph late (24 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%1617%
BB%518%
CSW%2826%
Whiff%1218%
Chase%5831%
xwOBA vs37.324
Hard-hit%2342%
GB%9556%
1st-pitch strike%5262%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.3
recent starts, K (n=5)
508/17 PIT
008/24 TB
508/30 LAD
309/05 CLE
209/11 COL
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
sinker
1150
57%
41%
93.8
+6
+15
2171
8%
27%
22%
23%
54%
.379
-0.5
curveball
753
21%
31%
78.4
-14
-13
2853
29%
27%
34%
40%
32%
.269
+0.3
changeup
476
6%
22%
89.1
+3
+14
1648
19%
21%
38%
19%
46%
.322
-0.3
slider
115
16%
1%
85.8
+0
-3
2422
40%
28%
35%
10%
31%
.152
-0.3
4-seam
96
1%
5%
94.8
+13
+6
2192
17%
14%
38%
8%
37%
.263
+0.9
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations, catcher view
sinkercurveballchangeup
Movement
How to attack
Hunt the sinker early: 57% of his first pitches, only 8% whiffs, 59% in-zone on 0-0.
Lay off the slider below the zone: 40% whiffs, only 33% of them are strikes.
Two strikes: expect the curveball (40% of 2-strike pitches vs 29% overall).
Erick Fedde (RHP)
2269 pitches, K% 15% vs LHB (311 BF) / 17% vs RHB (263 BF)
31 apps · median 20 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 82 pitches (IQR 75–90, 14 starts) · fastball -0.5 mph late (5 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%1016%
BB%578%
CSW%1925%
Whiff%1018%
Chase%425%
xwOBA vs29.334
Hard-hit%3540%
GB%2938%
1st-pitch strike%8466%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.1
recent starts, K (n=5) last start 09/04, 13 days ago
607/20 TEX
207/26 HOU
607/31 TB
408/29 MIN
209/04 MIN
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
sweeper
852
32%
45%
82.1
+1
+16
2532
22%
30%
31%
43%
38%
.288
-1.3
sinker
683
25%
37%
94.0
+8
-9
2064
11%
27%
17%
27%
42%
.356
+0.4
cutter
430
22%
15%
91.2
+7
+2
2149
15%
22%
24%
14%
40%
.379
+1.0
changeup
265
19%
2%
88.8
+3
-10
1847
23%
15%
25%
12%
20%
.358
+2.8
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations and movement (4 charts)
sweepersinkercutter
Movement
Attack plan vs Detroit Tigers
Sweeper: top breaking whiffs are Torkelson (43%), Clark (42%).
Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Torkelson (43%), Greene (43%).
Careful with McGonigle: 88% contact, 11% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.
White Sox bats vs Framber Valdez
Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
xwOBA
K%
Chase%
Contact%
HH%
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Chase Meidroth (R)
172
.346
17%
28%
85%
40%
68%
10%
≈ n208
2
Tommy Pham (R)
16
.250
31%
30%
70%
50%
53%
10%
·
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
194
.429
17%
21%
85%
55%
68%
10%
≈ n220
4
Randal Grichuk (R)
162
.374
23%
37%
81%
53%
63%
12%
≈ n118
5
Munetaka Murakami (L)
152
.340
37%
20%
60%
59%
63%
14%
≈ n224
6
Brenton Doyle (R)
86
.259
30%
37%
69%
39%
52%
11%
≈ n74
7
Jake Rogers (R)
43
.332
28%
28%
69%
50%
55%
10%
≈ n73
8
Luisangel Acuña (R)
104
.257
16%
34%
76%
42%
53%
8%
≈ n29
9
Braden Montgomery (S)
92
.280
28%
33%
70%
37%
55%
7%
≈ n210
Detroit Tigers bats, where our staff attacks
Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
FB whiff
BRK whiff
OFF whiff
xwOBA
Chase%
Contact%
1st-pitch swing
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Kevin McGonigle (L)
472
8%
14%
21%
.381
19%
88%
26% n473
69%
16%
≈ n211
2
Gleyber Torres (R)
277
21%
19%
25%
.304
22%
79%
38% n278
·
·
≈ n192
3
Dillon Dingler (R)
399
13%
29%
34%
.362
33%
80%
24% n399
67%
15%
≈ n179
4
Riley Greene (L)
383
18%
30%
43%
.382
27%
72%
35% n383
68%
18%
≈ n117
5
Spencer Torkelson (R)
405
22%
43%
43%
.319
22%
69%
25% n405
60%
17%
≈ n143
6
Zach McKinstry (L)
327
8%
22%
26%
.288
30%
85%
35% n327
·
·
≈ n154
7
Max Clark (L)
112
5%
42%
18%
.294
32%
86%
24% n112
67%
10%
≈ n165
8
John Peck (R)
32
21%
·
·
.376
27%
75%
·
62%
10%
·
9
Javier Báez (R)
128
16%
35%
22%
.241
48%
73%
35% n128
·
·
≈ n85
Detroit Tigers hitters, one card each
One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.
1
Kevin McGonigle (L)
P(1+ hit) 69% · P(1+ HR) 16%
FB8%
BRK14%
OFF21%
vs RHP 0.381 xwOBA, K 11% (472 PA)
2
Gleyber Torres (R)
FB21%
BRK19%
OFF25%
vs RHP 0.304 xwOBA, K 18% (277 PA)
3
Dillon Dingler (R)
P(1+ hit) 67% · P(1+ HR) 15%
FB13%
BRK29%
OFF34%
vs RHP 0.362 xwOBA, K 21% (399 PA)
4
Riley Greene (L)
P(1+ hit) 68% · P(1+ HR) 18%
FB18%
BRK30%
OFF43%
vs RHP 0.382 xwOBA, K 27% (383 PA)
5
Spencer Torkelson (R)
P(1+ hit) 60% · P(1+ HR) 17%
FB22%
BRK43%
OFF43%
vs RHP 0.319 xwOBA, K 32% (405 PA)
6
Zach McKinstry (L)
FB8%
BRK22%
OFF26%
vs RHP 0.288 xwOBA, K 16% (327 PA)
7
Max Clark (L)
P(1+ hit) 67% · P(1+ HR) 10%
FB5%
BRK42%
OFF18%
vs RHP 0.294 xwOBA, K 23% (112 PA)
8
John Peck (R)
P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 10%
FB21%
BRK·
OFF·
only 32 PA vs RHP — too few to split
9
Javier Báez (R)
FB16%
BRK35%
OFF22%
vs RHP 0.241 xwOBA, K 20% (128 PA)
Matchups: CWS hitters vs Framber Valdez
Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Chase Meidroth
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and in — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.373 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.317 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 68% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
1 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
2. Tommy Pham
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 53% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
3. Miguel Vargas
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 9% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.597 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (23 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 68% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
1 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
4. Randal Grichuk
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 9% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.635 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (16 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
0 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
5. Munetaka Murakami
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
6. Brenton Doyle
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 9% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.464 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (11 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 52% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
7. Jake Rogers
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 55% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
8. Luisangel Acuña
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 53% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
0 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
9. Braden Montgomery
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 55% to get a hit and 7% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
Detroit Tigers: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Jake Rogers — runners went 41-for-53 against him (23% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Kevin McGonigle (L)
28.2 ft/s
4.6% (13/285)
holds
+0 3B
2
Gleyber Torres (R)
25.1 ft/s
0.7% (2/437)
holds
+1 2B
3
Dillon Dingler (R)
27.5 ft/s
0.3% (0/356)
holds
·
4
Riley Greene (L)
26.6 ft/s
1.5% (5/391)
holds
+1 LF
5
Spencer Torkelson (R)
26.4 ft/s
1.2% (4/410)
holds
-11 1B
6
Zach McKinstry (L)
27.9 ft/s
8.5% (26/298)
occasional
+6 2B
7
Max Clark (L)
·
5.1% (3/60)
holds
·
8
John Peck (R)
·
12.6% (4/19)
occasional
·
9
Javier Báez (R)
27.2 ft/s
3.1% (5/177)
holds
·
Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Dillon Dingler — runners went 83-for-113 against him (27% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Chase Meidroth (R)
27.2 ft/s
3.2% (14/451)
holds
+4 2B
2
Tommy Pham (R)
·
2.1% (3/177)
holds
·
3
Miguel Vargas (R)
28.3 ft/s
4.9% (20/411)
holds
-2 3B
4
Randal Grichuk (R)
27.3 ft/s
1.5% (1/125)
holds
·
5
Munetaka Murakami (L)
27.1 ft/s
1.9% (3/194)
holds
+0 1B
6
Brenton Doyle (R)
28.7 ft/s
13.7% (33/228)
runner
·
7
Jake Rogers (R)
26.3 ft/s
1.9% (1/89)
holds
·
8
Luisangel Acuña (R)
29.8 ft/s
15.9% (30/174)
runner
-3 SS
9
Braden Montgomery (S)
28.5 ft/s
1.6% (1/115)
holds
·
Bullpens
Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three
most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates
percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.