CALIBRATE BASEBALLBack to the recordgame prep, generated 2026-09-18 22:39 UTC
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
2026-09-18, 7:40 PM ET, Rate Field.
David Sandlin (R) against
Andrew Sears (L).
Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published
boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-09-17.
What decides tonight
Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.
1Our bats highest board probability Miguel Vargas 66%, lowest Kyle Teel 53% (14 points of spread across the nine). see the grid
2Pen posture Us: 1 on back-to-back days, 1 threw 35+ last time. Detroit Tigers: 1 threw 35+ last time. see bullpens
3Their bats highest board probability Riley Greene 14%. see the grid
Their starterAndrew Sears, board E[K] 4.4 — 4 apps, median 20 BF.
Run environment board total 8.90, P(over 8.5) 49%. Clears its pre-registered floor only; not distinguishable from climatology, and carries a documented −0.29-run level bias.
Air 66°F · 7 mph blowing in from center · air 1.6% thinner than a neutral sea-level night. Shown as conditions, not as an edge: this engine's weather layer measured a CRPS change of −0.003 on the runs backtest, which is not distinguishable from zero.
Andrew Sears (LHP)limited 2026 sample
287 pitches, K% 18% overall (73 BF; split withheld, short side only 24 BF)
4 apps · median 20 BF · reaches the order 2.5× (max 3) · exit pitch count withheld, only 2 start(s) · fastball -1.1 mph late (1 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%2118%
BB%905%
CSW%4426%
Whiff%6925%
Chase%6732%
xwOBA vs89.273
Hard-hit%9828%
GB%226%
1st-pitch strike%1056%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.4
recent starts, K (n=2)
409/04 CLE
509/12 COL
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
131
39%
49%
93.9
+14
+11
2188
13%
24%
26%
43%
42%
.285
-0.4
slider
85
39%
25%
82.0
+0
-6
2323
33%
31%
39%
36%
17%
.327
+2.1
changeup
40
2%
20%
87.3
+2
+13
1574
58%
35%
36%
11%
·
.213
·
sinker
30
20%
6%
92.9
+9
+16
2368
7%
17%
27%
11%
·
.205
·
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations, catcher view
4-seamsliderchangeup
Movement
How to attack
Hunt the 4-seam early: 52% of his first pitches, only 13% whiffs, 50% in-zone on 0-0.
Lay off the changeup below the zone: 58% whiffs, only 30% of them are strikes.
Vs righties he leans changeup (20% of pitches to that side).
David Sandlin (RHP)limited 2026 sample
479 pitches, K% 23% overall (126 BF; split withheld, short side only 50 BF)
6 apps · median 21 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 75 pitches (IQR 68–83, 4 starts) · fastball -2.4 mph late (2 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%5723%
BB%4010%
CSW%3526%
Whiff%2720%
Chase%4630%
xwOBA vs71.299
Hard-hit%8233%
GB%7446%
1st-pitch strike%3960%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.7
recent starts, K (n=4)
405/27 MIN
406/01 MIN
606/26 KC
509/13 STL
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
160
34%
33%
96.6
+16
-6
2294
15%
26%
26%
32%
41%
.344
+0.9
curveball
119
31%
15%
83.1
-8
+5
2562
22%
33%
39%
21%
52%
.242
-1.2
cutter
87
13%
26%
90.9
+7
+3
2352
26%
25%
14%
11%
·
.434
-0.2
sinker
46
8%
11%
95.0
+12
-14
2106
6%
17%
21%
10%
·
.191
·
sweeper
34
2%
15%
86.1
-0
+10
2686
33%
29%
46%
12%
·
·
·
changeup
33
11%
0%
91.1
+7
-10
1280
25%
12%
37%
12%
·
.193
·
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seamcurveballcutter
Movement
Attack plan vs Detroit Tigers
Curveball/sweeper: top breaking whiffs are Torkelson (42%), Clark (41%).
Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Greene (44%), Torkelson (43%).
Careful with McGonigle: 88% contact, 12% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.
White Sox bats vs Andrew Sears
Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
xwOBA
K%
Chase%
Contact%
HH%
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Miguel Vargas (R)
197
.427
17%
21%
85%
54%
66%
10%
≈ n217
2
Tommy Pham (R)
19
.247
37%
27%
65%
50%
55%
10%
·
3
Randal Grichuk (R)
165
.372
23%
36%
82%
53%
62%
12%
≈ n115
4
Munetaka Murakami (L)
155
.346
37%
20%
59%
60%
60%
13%
≈ n227
5
Chase Meidroth (R)
175
.342
17%
28%
85%
40%
66%
10%
≈ n207
6
Kyle Teel (L)
28
.283
39%
38%
63%
43%
53%
12%
≈ n68
7
Brenton Doyle (R)
88
.261
31%
37%
68%
40%
53%
11%
▼ -10% n80
8
Colson Montgomery (L)
184
.324
30%
31%
68%
37%
54%
14%
≈ n230
9
Tristan Peters (L)
63
.290
21%
25%
78%
20%
62%
11%
≈ n189
Detroit Tigers bats, where our staff attacks
Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
FB whiff
BRK whiff
OFF whiff
xwOBA
Chase%
Contact%
1st-pitch swing
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Kevin McGonigle (L)
477
8%
14%
21%
.381
19%
88%
26% n478
68%
13%
≈ n208
2
Gleyber Torres (R)
282
21%
19%
25%
.305
22%
79%
38% n283
66%
9%
≈ n183
3
Colt Keith (L)
393
10%
31%
31%
.343
25%
81%
27% n394
53%
10%
≈ n115
4
Riley Greene (L)
386
18%
30%
44%
.382
27%
72%
35% n386
63%
14%
≈ n125
5
Spencer Torkelson (R)
408
23%
42%
43%
.320
22%
69%
25% n408
59%
12%
≈ n151
6
Zach McKinstry (L)
329
8%
22%
26%
.287
30%
85%
35% n329
55%
5%
≈ n144
7
Max Clark (L)
115
5%
41%
18%
.293
32%
86%
24% n115
66%
7%
≈ n159
8
Eduardo Valencia (R)
58
19%
24%
·
.376
29%
79%
·
63%
10%
≈ n95
9
Hao-Yu Lee (R)
189
24%
29%
40%
.300
31%
73%
26% n188
63%
11%
≈ n186
Detroit Tigers hitters, one card each
One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.
1
Kevin McGonigle (L)
P(1+ hit) 68% · P(1+ HR) 13%
FB8%
BRK14%
OFF21%
vs RHP 0.381 xwOBA, K 12% (477 PA)
2
Gleyber Torres (R)
P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 9%
FB21%
BRK19%
OFF25%
vs RHP 0.305 xwOBA, K 18% (282 PA)
3
Colt Keith (L)
P(1+ hit) 53% · P(1+ HR) 10%
FB10%
BRK31%
OFF31%
vs RHP 0.343 xwOBA, K 20% (393 PA)
4
Riley Greene (L)
P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 14%
FB18%
BRK30%
OFF44%
vs RHP 0.382 xwOBA, K 27% (386 PA)
5
Spencer Torkelson (R)
P(1+ hit) 59% · P(1+ HR) 12%
FB23%
BRK42%
OFF43%
vs RHP 0.320 xwOBA, K 32% (408 PA)
6
Zach McKinstry (L)
P(1+ hit) 55% · P(1+ HR) 5%
FB8%
BRK22%
OFF26%
vs RHP 0.287 xwOBA, K 16% (329 PA)
7
Max Clark (L)
P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 7%
FB5%
BRK41%
OFF18%
vs RHP 0.293 xwOBA, K 23% (115 PA)
8
Eduardo Valencia (R)
P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 10%
FB19%
BRK24%
OFF·
vs RHP 0.376 xwOBA, K 16% (58 PA)
9
Hao-Yu Lee (R)
P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 11%
FB24%
BRK29%
OFF40%
vs RHP 0.300 xwOBA, K 24% (189 PA)
Matchups: CWS hitters vs Andrew Sears
Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Miguel Vargas
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.597 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (23 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 66% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
2. Tommy Pham
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 55% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
3. Randal Grichuk
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.605 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (17 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
4. Munetaka Murakami
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.426 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.310 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 13% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
5. Chase Meidroth
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.528 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.331 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 66% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
6. Kyle Teel
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 53% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
7. Brenton Doyle
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.464 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (11 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 53% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
8. Colson Montgomery
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.453 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.310 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 54% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
9. Tristan Peters
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 62% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
Detroit Tigers: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Kyle Teel — runners went 49-for-61 against him (20% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Kevin McGonigle (L)
28.2 ft/s
4.6% (13/288)
holds
+0 3B
2
Gleyber Torres (R)
25.1 ft/s
0.7% (2/440)
holds
+1 2B
3
Colt Keith (L)
28.2 ft/s
2.7% (8/320)
holds
+2 3B
4
Riley Greene (L)
26.6 ft/s
1.5% (5/392)
holds
+1 LF
5
Spencer Torkelson (R)
26.4 ft/s
1.2% (4/413)
holds
-11 1B
6
Zach McKinstry (L)
27.9 ft/s
8.5% (26/298)
occasional
+6 2B
7
Max Clark (L)
·
5.0% (3/61)
holds
·
8
Eduardo Valencia (R)
·
2.1% (0/32)
holds
·
9
Hao-Yu Lee (R)
28.1 ft/s
3.2% (3/106)
holds
-6 2B
Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Eduardo Valencia — only 13 attempts against him, too few to say anything.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Miguel Vargas (R)
28.3 ft/s
4.9% (20/413)
holds
-2 3B
2
Tommy Pham (R)
·
2.1% (3/179)
holds
·
3
Randal Grichuk (R)
27.3 ft/s
1.4% (1/127)
holds
·
4
Munetaka Murakami (L)
27.1 ft/s
1.9% (3/194)
holds
+0 1B
5
Chase Meidroth (R)
27.2 ft/s
3.2% (14/452)
holds
+4 2B
6
Kyle Teel (L)
27.0 ft/s
1.6% (2/170)
holds
·
7
Brenton Doyle (R)
28.7 ft/s
13.6% (33/230)
runner
·
8
Colson Montgomery (L)
26.6 ft/s
0.8% (1/237)
holds
+6 SS
9
Tristan Peters (L)
28.7 ft/s
3.9% (6/160)
holds
+9 CF
Bullpens
Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three
most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates
percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.