Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Randal Grichuk
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and away — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.381 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.261 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
2. Kyle Teel
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 18% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 36% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +5 points. (15 swings.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 52% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
3. Miguel Vargas
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 66% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
2 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
4. Munetaka Murakami
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 18% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 48% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +17 points. (37 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.503 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (32 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
1 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
5. Andrew Benintendi
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.397 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.331 league average in that spot. (23 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 54% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
0 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
6. Colson Montgomery
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 18% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 47% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (99 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and away — and he puts 5% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.438 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.273 league average in that spot. (11 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 54% to get a hit and 15% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
0 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
7. Chase Meidroth
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 66% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
1 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
8. Braden Montgomery
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.476 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (28 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 56% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
3 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
9. Brenton Doyle
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 50% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.