CALIBRATE BASEBALL Back to the record game prep, generated 2026-09-20 20:39 UTC

Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox

2026-09-20, 2:10 PM ET, Rate Field. Davis Martin (R) against Troy Melton (R). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-09-19.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

Troy Melton (RHP)

1690 pitches, K% 18% vs LHB (266 BF) / 23% vs RHB (185 BF)

19 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 4) · exits at 90 pitches (IQR 86–93, 19 starts) · fastball -0.9 mph late (13 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%3420%
BB%648%
CSW%2425%
Whiff%4522%
Chase%7232%
xwOBA vs70.299
Hard-hit%5337%
GB%5243%
1st-pitch strike%3960%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.5
recent starts, K (n=5)
308/21
KC
408/26
TB
409/01
MIN
309/07
MIN
309/14
TOR

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam54936%27%96.4+15-6226616%22%27%29%49%.344+0.2
cutter36520%23%92.2+7+4233218%28%34%19%51%.280-2.8
slider28715%20%86.9-0+7242533%30%36%23%27%.286+0.6
sinker1583%18%95.7+10-14213120%25%41%3%·.331-0.8
curveball13610%5%79.4-9+16246732%34%36%10%35%.262-0.4
splitter13110%4%89.0+2-10130433%20%31%10%20%.205-1.2
changeup645%2%89.9+2-11130417%8%27%6%21%.273+4.1

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

4-seam
cutter
slider

Movement

4-seam: +15 IVB, -6 HBcutter: +7 IVB, +4 HBslider: -0 IVB, +7 HBsinker: +10 IVB, -14 HBcurveball: -9 IVB, +16 HBsplitter: +2 IVB, -10 HBchangeup: +2 IVB, -11 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

How to attack

  • Hunt the 4-seam early: 37% of his first pitches, only 16% whiffs, 54% in-zone on 0-0.
  • Lay off the splitter below the zone: 33% whiffs, only 29% of them are strikes.
  • Vs righties he leans sinker (18% of pitches to that side).

Davis Martin (RHP)

2254 pitches, K% 18% vs LHB (347 BF) / 21% vs RHB (245 BF)

27 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 88 pitches (IQR 82–92, 26 starts) · fastball -0.2 mph late (16 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%3119%
BB%697%
CSW%2826%
Whiff%3321%
Chase%6532%
xwOBA vs31.332
Hard-hit%1244%
GB%5543%
1st-pitch strike%1257%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.3
recent starts, K (n=5) last start 09/09, 11 days ago
108/04
BOS
108/09
CLE
308/13
CIN
309/02
HOU
109/09
PIT

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam59530%22%93.9+14-5241020%25%27%30%40%.319+0.1
sinker42214%26%92.8+8-1423966%21%27%13%59%.354-0.9
changeup31718%8%90.1+1-13212212%19%37%15%39%.338-1.1
curveball31617%10%81.7-8+14287539%31%29%15%32%.257+0.0
cutter28616%9%89.7+7+2257524%32%26%9%57%.415-0.5
slider2865%25%87.1+1+5260533%28%47%19%28%.299+0.8

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seam
sinker
changeup

Movement

4-seam: +14 IVB, -5 HBsinker: +8 IVB, -14 HBchangeup: +1 IVB, -13 HBcurveball: -8 IVB, +14 HBcutter: +7 IVB, +2 HBslider: +1 IVB, +5 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

Attack plan vs Detroit Tigers

  • Curveball/slider: top breaking whiffs are Torkelson (43%), Clark (40%).
  • Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Greene (44%), Torkelson (43%).
  • Careful with McGonigle: 88% contact, 11% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Troy Melton

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAxwOBAK%Chase%Contact%HH%P(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Sam Antonacci (L)424.35514%21%87%35%64%9%≈ n171
2Kyle Teel (L)85.32038%32%68%52%55%12%≈ n82
3Miguel Vargas (R)476.36818%21%82%40%67%12%≈ n219
4Munetaka Murakami (L)364.34335%24%60%54%60%14%≈ n232
5Andrew Benintendi (L)404.31922%33%75%47%57%12%≈ n150
6Colson Montgomery (L)425.29338%33%64%44%53%16%≈ n230
7Chase Meidroth (R)447.28324%29%81%32%64%10%≈ n197
8Braden Montgomery (S)244.35017%25%74%41%56%8%≈ n202
9Brenton Doyle (R)115.23436%32%72%29%52%11%≈ n93

Detroit Tigers bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAFB whiffBRK whiffOFF whiffxwOBAChase%Contact%1st-pitch swingP(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Kevin McGonigle (L)4858%14%21%.38319%88%26% n48671%15%≈ n213
2Gleyber Torres (R)28521%19%25%.30322%79%38% n28667%11%≈ n181
3Hao-Yu Lee (R)19624%29%40%.30532%74%26% n19565%12%≈ n203
4Riley Greene (L)39218%29%44%.38127%72%35% n39260%18%≈ n140
5Eduardo Valencia (R)6219%26%·.37031%79%·67%15%≈ n99
6Max Clark (L)1214%40%18%.30030%86%25% n12168%8%≈ n163
7Spencer Torkelson (R)41222%43%43%.32022%69%25% n41261%15%≈ n150
8Brett Callahan (L)6522%22%34%.29642%75%·54%11%≈ n122
9John Peck (R)3918%25%·.39326%78%·61%10%·

Detroit Tigers hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

1

Kevin McGonigle (L)

P(1+ hit) 71% · P(1+ HR) 15%

FB8%
BRK14%
OFF21%

vs RHP 0.383 xwOBA, K 11% (485 PA)

2

Gleyber Torres (R)

P(1+ hit) 67% · P(1+ HR) 11%

FB21%
BRK19%
OFF25%

vs RHP 0.303 xwOBA, K 18% (285 PA)

3

Hao-Yu Lee (R)

P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 12%

FB24%
BRK29%
OFF40%

vs RHP 0.305 xwOBA, K 24% (196 PA)

4

Riley Greene (L)

P(1+ hit) 60% · P(1+ HR) 18%

FB18%
BRK29%
OFF44%

vs RHP 0.381 xwOBA, K 27% (392 PA)

5

Eduardo Valencia (R)

P(1+ hit) 67% · P(1+ HR) 15%

FB19%
BRK26%
OFF·

vs RHP 0.370 xwOBA, K 15% (62 PA)

6

Max Clark (L)

P(1+ hit) 68% · P(1+ HR) 8%

FB4%
BRK40%
OFF18%

vs RHP 0.300 xwOBA, K 22% (121 PA)

7

Spencer Torkelson (R)

P(1+ hit) 61% · P(1+ HR) 15%

FB22%
BRK43%
OFF43%

vs RHP 0.320 xwOBA, K 32% (412 PA)

8

Brett Callahan (L)

P(1+ hit) 54% · P(1+ HR) 11%

FB22%
BRK22%
OFF34%

vs RHP 0.296 xwOBA, K 35% (65 PA)

9

John Peck (R)

P(1+ hit) 61% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB18%
BRK25%
OFF·

only 39 PA vs RHP — too few to split

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Troy Melton

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Sam Antonacci

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.390 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.331 league average in that spot. (44 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 64% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

4 for 10 lifetime. At 10 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

2. Kyle Teel

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 18% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 36% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +5 points. (18 swings.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 55% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

3. Miguel Vargas

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.457 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (36 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 67% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2 for 9 lifetime. At 9 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

4. Munetaka Murakami

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 18% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 48% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +17 points. (37 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and away — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.366 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.261 league average in that spot. (23 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 5 lifetime. At 5 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

5. Andrew Benintendi

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 24% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +13 points. (17 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.397 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.331 league average in that spot. (23 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 57% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 9 lifetime. At 9 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

6. Colson Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 18% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 47% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (101 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.492 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (19 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 53% to get a hit and 16% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 8 lifetime. At 8 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

7. Chase Meidroth

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 64% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2 for 5 lifetime. At 5 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

8. Braden Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 22% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +11 points. (19 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.476 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (28 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 56% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

1 for 4 lifetime. At 4 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.

9. Brenton Doyle

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 52% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

Detroit Tigers: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Kyle Teel — runners went 49-for-61 against him (20% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Kevin McGonigle (L)28.2 ft/s4.5% (13/292)holds+0 3B
2Gleyber Torres (R)25.1 ft/s0.7% (2/443)holds+1 2B
3Hao-Yu Lee (R)28.1 ft/s3.1% (3/111)holds-6 2B
4Riley Greene (L)26.6 ft/s1.5% (5/398)holds+1 LF
5Eduardo Valencia (R)·2.1% (0/34)holds·
6Max Clark (L)·4.7% (3/67)holds·
7Spencer Torkelson (R)26.4 ft/s1.2% (4/416)holds-11 1B
8Brett Callahan (L)·2.8% (0/19)holds·
9John Peck (R)·11.2% (4/24)occasional·

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Eduardo Valencia — only 13 attempts against him, too few to say anything.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Sam Antonacci (L)28.2 ft/s8.0% (18/216)occasional-5 LF
2Kyle Teel (L)27.0 ft/s1.6% (2/172)holds·
3Miguel Vargas (R)28.3 ft/s5.1% (21/415)holds-2 3B
4Munetaka Murakami (L)27.1 ft/s1.9% (3/196)holds+0 1B
5Andrew Benintendi (L)26.6 ft/s0.7% (1/275)holds·
6Colson Montgomery (L)26.6 ft/s0.8% (1/239)holds+6 SS
7Chase Meidroth (R)27.2 ft/s3.2% (14/455)holds+4 2B
8Braden Montgomery (S)28.5 ft/s1.6% (1/116)holds·
9Brenton Doyle (R)28.7 ft/s13.4% (33/233)runner·

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms
Reliever09/1709/1809/19 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)·19·1292p/11g22%20%.3084-seam 91 (63%) · changeup 79 (23%)
Hagen Smith (L)·20·1274p/10g39%36%.2454-seam 94 (48%) · slider 83 (32%)
Grant Taylor (R)35·23today260p/11g31%26%.2744-seam 98 (31%) · curveball 84 (26%)
Sean Newcomb (L)·24·1230p/7g22%20%.3224-seam 95 (47%) · slurve 84 (22%)
Tyler Schweitzer (L)···8178p/6g12%19%.367slider 88 (41%) · 4-seam 93 (34%)
Jordan Hicks (R)2523·1167p/9g29%25%.274sinker 100 (38%) · 4-seam 99 (32%)
Bryan Hudson (L)1114·1136p/11g22%21%.2844-seam 91 (64%) · sweeper 78 (36%)
Tyler Davis (R)···1176p/5g21%21%.2944-seam 96 (64%) · slider 89 (29%)
Detroit Tigers bullpen 8 arms
Reliever09/1709/1809/19 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Jacob Waguespack (R)12·31today204p/11g18%22%.2734-seam 93 (42%) · cutter 87 (31%)
Drew Sommers (L)·22·1199p/11g36%28%.2354-seam 95 (41%) · sinker 95 (41%)
Kyle Finnegan (R)···4191p/10g17%24%.3624-seam 96 (47%) · splitter 87 (28%)
Beau Brieske (R)·49·1 heavy189p/7g24%22%.3014-seam 95 (37%) · slider 89 (17%)
Tyler Kinley (R)·17·1186p/12g21%26%.291slider 87 (73%) · curveball 83 (15%)
Tyler Holton (L)···3181p/11g19%22%.301cutter 88 (30%) · sinker 91 (24%)
Kenley Jansen (R)·10·1127p/10g28%24%.298cutter 93 (75%) · slider 85 (19%)
Brant Hurter (L)·21·184p/5g17%16%.306sinker 91 (50%) · sweeper 80 (35%)