Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals

2026-09-24, 2:10 PM ET, Kauffman Stadium. David Sandlin (R) against Randy Dobnak (R). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-09-23.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

1Our bats highest board probability Miguel Vargas 71%, lowest Colson Montgomery 56% (15 points of spread across the nine). see the grid
2Their bats highest board probability Carter Jensen 18%. see the grid
3Their starter Randy Dobnak, board E[K] 4.3 — 14 apps, median 22 BF.

Pen posture Us: no flags. Kansas City Royals: no flags. see bullpens
Run environment board total 9.16, P(over 8.5) 52%. Clears its pre-registered floor only; not distinguishable from climatology, and carries a documented −0.29-run level bias.
Air 76°F · 6 mph, across · air 3.8% thinner than a neutral sea-level night. Shown as conditions, not as an edge: this engine's weather layer measured a CRPS change of −0.003 on the runs backtest, which is not distinguishable from zero.

Randy Dobnak (RHP)

1222 pitches, K% 15% overall (311 BF; split withheld, short side only 117 BF)

14 apps · median 22 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 91 pitches (IQR 82–94, 12 starts) · fastball +0.2 mph late (9 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%715%

BB%588%

CSW%1825%

Whiff%1118%

Chase%4229%

xwOBA vs29.333

Hard-hit%3740%

GB%8952%

1st-pitch strike%2258%

published K forecast: E[K] 4.3

recent starts, K (n=5)

508/26
TOR

609/01
MIA

309/06
TOR

409/12
BOS

109/18
PIT

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch	#	vL%	vR%	MPH	IVB	HB	RPM	Whiff	CSW	Chase	2K use	2K zone	xwOBA	RV/100
sinker	476	36%	44%	91.5	+1	-15	1954	6%	23%	19%	22%	56%	.389	-1.5
sweeper	304	18%	35%	82.4	-1	+9	2486	31%	34%	24%	23%	28%	.347	+1.0
changeup	265	28%	11%	84.7	-3	-8	1479	26%	22%	46%	31%	21%	.256	+0.4
4-seam	115	12%	5%	92.3	+9	-12	2036	9%	18%	20%	14%	31%	.255	-0.5
slider	62	6%	4%	83.8	-3	-2	2221	31%	23%	41%	9%	31%	.305	+0.0

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

sinker

sweeper

changeup

Movement

How to attack

Hunt the sinker early: 48% of his first pitches, only 6% whiffs, 53% in-zone on 0-0.
Vs righties he leans sweeper (35% of pitches to that side).
Two strikes: expect the changeup (31% of 2-strike pitches vs 22% overall).

David Sandlin (RHP)

553 pitches, K% 23% overall (145 BF; split withheld, short side only 58 BF)

7 apps · median 20 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 74 pitches (IQR 70–80, 5 starts) · fastball -2.4 mph late (2 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%5423%

BB%459%

CSW%5527%

Whiff%3621%

Chase%4029%

xwOBA vs58.310

Hard-hit%8134%

GB%7547%

1st-pitch strike%3159%

published K forecast: E[K] 4.2

recent starts, K (n=5)

405/27
MIN

406/01
MIN

606/26
KC

509/13
STL

409/18
DET

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch	#	vL%	vR%	MPH	IVB	HB	RPM	Whiff	CSW	Chase	2K use	2K zone	xwOBA	RV/100
4-seam	176	33%	31%	96.5	+16	-6	2290	14%	27%	24%	30%	40%	.368	+1.1
curveball	129	30%	14%	83.1	-8	+5	2567	22%	33%	39%	21%	48%	.226	-1.4
cutter	109	15%	27%	91.0	+7	+3	2365	29%	28%	19%	12%	·	.414	+0.2
sweeper	52	4%	17%	86.2	+0	+9	2653	35%	31%	37%	14%	·	.345	-0.1
sinker	51	7%	12%	95.0	+12	-14	2113	5%	18%	21%	11%	·	.207	-3.2
changeup	36	11%	0%	91.0	+7	-10	1299	24%	11%	37%	11%	·	.183	·

Locations and movement (4 charts)

4-seam

curveball

cutter

Movement

Attack plan vs Kansas City Royals

Curveball/sweeper: top breaking whiffs are Perez (32%), Witt Jr. (32%).
Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Rave (35%), Collins (35%).
Careful with Pasquantino: 87% contact, 14% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Randy Dobnak

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#	Batter	PA	xwOBA	K%	Chase%	Contact%	HH%	P(1+ hit)	P(1+ HR)	30d contact
1	Sam Antonacci (L)	432	.358	13%	21%	88%	36%	69%	8%	≈ n159
2	Kyle Teel (L)	93	.309	39%	31%	68%	51%	59%	12%	≈ n113
3	Miguel Vargas (R)	483	.369	18%	21%	82%	40%	71%	12%	≈ n212
4	Munetaka Murakami (L)	372	.347	35%	23%	60%	54%	61%	14%	≈ n216
5	Andrew Benintendi (L)	410	.318	22%	33%	75%	47%	58%	10%	≈ n138
6	Tristan Peters (L)	412	.319	18%	33%	80%	35%	63%	10%	≈ n166
7	Brenton Doyle (R)	122	.235	35%	33%	72%	30%	·	·	≈ n98
8	Luisangel Acuña (R)	114	.271	23%	33%	74%	32%	·	·	≈ n25
9	Braden Montgomery (S)	253	.349	16%	25%	75%	42%	57%	8%	≈ n196

Kansas City Royals bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#	Batter	PA	FB whiff	BRK whiff	OFF whiff	xwOBA	Chase%	Contact%	1st-pitch swing	P(1+ hit)	P(1+ HR)	30d contact
1	Luke Maile (R)	15	·	·	·	.268	22%	75%	·	·	·	≈ n20
2	Bobby Witt Jr. (R)	447	17%	32%	14%	.373	32%	77%	32% n447	66%	13%	≈ n216
3	Vinnie Pasquantino (L)	335	8%	18%	21%	.362	29%	87%	25% n336	67%	17%	≈ n176
4	Salvador Perez (R)	441	18%	32%	29%	.300	44%	75%	37% n441	59%	12%	≈ n218
5	Michael Massey (L)	338	13%	24%	18%	.322	39%	84%	25% n338	64%	9%	≈ n148
6	Nick Loftin (R)	255	8%	28%	31%	.280	24%	84%	18% n256	58%	9%	≈ n147
7	John Rave (L)	111	15%	27%	35%	.349	24%	78%	17% n111	52%	9%	≈ n124
8	Kyle Isbel (L)	236	8%	27%	25%	.273	35%	84%	29% n237	55%	7%	≈ n129
9	Isaac Collins (S)	356	12%	31%	35%	.303	19%	81%	24% n356	56%	5%	≈ n134

Kansas City Royals hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

Luke Maile (R)

FB·

BRK·

OFF·

only 15 PA vs RHP — too few to split

Bobby Witt Jr. (R)

P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 13%

FB17%

BRK32%

OFF14%

vs RHP 0.373 xwOBA, K 18% (447 PA)

Vinnie Pasquantino (L)

P(1+ hit) 67% · P(1+ HR) 17%

FB8%

BRK18%

OFF21%

vs RHP 0.362 xwOBA, K 14% (335 PA)

Salvador Perez (R)

P(1+ hit) 59% · P(1+ HR) 12%

FB18%

BRK32%

OFF29%

vs RHP 0.300 xwOBA, K 20% (441 PA)

Michael Massey (L)

P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB13%

BRK24%

OFF18%

vs RHP 0.322 xwOBA, K 15% (338 PA)

Nick Loftin (R)

P(1+ hit) 58% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB8%

BRK28%

OFF31%

vs RHP 0.280 xwOBA, K 17% (255 PA)

John Rave (L)

P(1+ hit) 52% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB15%

BRK27%

OFF35%

vs RHP 0.349 xwOBA, K 22% (111 PA)

Kyle Isbel (L)

P(1+ hit) 55% · P(1+ HR) 7%

FB8%

BRK27%

OFF25%

vs RHP 0.273 xwOBA, K 23% (236 PA)

Isaac Collins (S)

P(1+ hit) 56% · P(1+ HR) 5%

FB12%

BRK31%

OFF35%

vs RHP 0.303 xwOBA, K 24% (356 PA)

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Randy Dobnak

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Sam Antonacci

Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker middle-middle on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 13% of the time there, against 5% for a typical hitter — +7 points. (15 swings.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 69% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2. Kyle Teel

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 7% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 36% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +5 points. (19 swings.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

3. Miguel Vargas

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and in — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.497 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.334 league average in that spot. (36 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 71% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

4. Munetaka Murakami

Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker middle-middle on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 38% of the time there, against 5% for a typical hitter — +32 points. (15 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and away — and he puts 9% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.359 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.261 league average in that spot. (24 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

5. Andrew Benintendi

Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker middle-middle on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 25% of the time there, against 5% for a typical hitter — +20 points. (15 swings.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

6. Tristan Peters

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.391 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.310 league average in that spot. (31 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 63% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

7. Brenton Doyle

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.

8. Luisangel Acuña

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.

9. Braden Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker off the plate on 14% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 30% of the time there, against 22% for a typical hitter — +7 points. (15 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.399 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.355 league average in that spot. (27 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 57% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

Kansas City Royals: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Kyle Teel — runners went 49-for-62 against him (21% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#	Batter	Sprint	Steal rate	Threat	OAA
1	Luke Maile (R)	·	4.1% (1/30)	holds	·
2	Bobby Witt Jr. (R)	30.3 ft/s	16.1% (77/463)	runner	+18 SS
3	Vinnie Pasquantino (L)	25.8 ft/s	1.3% (4/372)	holds	+0 1B
4	Salvador Perez (R)	24.0 ft/s	0.6% (1/327)	holds	·
5	Michael Massey (L)	27.0 ft/s	1.9% (3/199)	holds	+8 2B
6	Nick Loftin (R)	28.2 ft/s	3.6% (6/174)	holds	-6 3B
7	John Rave (L)	·	10.0% (12/110)	occasional	·
8	Kyle Isbel (L)	27.4 ft/s	4.2% (9/217)	holds	+4 CF
9	Isaac Collins (S)	27.5 ft/s	8.3% (30/352)	occasional	-3 LF

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

#	Batter	Sprint	Steal rate	Threat	OAA
1	Sam Antonacci (L)	28.2 ft/s	7.9% (18/220)	occasional	-5 LF
2	Kyle Teel (L)	27.0 ft/s	1.6% (2/178)	holds	·
3	Miguel Vargas (R)	28.3 ft/s	5.0% (21/423)	holds	-2 3B
4	Munetaka Murakami (L)	27.1 ft/s	1.8% (3/203)	holds	+0 1B
5	Andrew Benintendi (L)	26.6 ft/s	0.7% (1/276)	holds	·
6	Tristan Peters (L)	28.7 ft/s	3.9% (6/163)	holds	+9 CF
7	Brenton Doyle (R)	28.7 ft/s	13.3% (33/236)	runner	·
8	Luisangel Acuña (R)	29.8 ft/s	15.8% (30/176)	runner	-3 SS
9	Braden Montgomery (S)	28.5 ft/s	1.5% (1/120)	holds	·

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms

Reliever	09/20	09/22	09/23	games since	30-day	K%	Whiff%	xwOBA	Top pitches
Trevor Richards (R)	32	23	·	1	301p/11g	21%	20%	.315	4-seam 91 (63%) · changeup 79 (22%)
Hagen Smith (L)	18	·	33	today	285p/10g	37%	35%	.243	4-seam 94 (47%) · slider 83 (32%)
Sean Newcomb (L)	·	·	25	today	255p/8g	22%	20%	.324	4-seam 95 (45%) · slurve 84 (22%)
Grant Taylor (R)	·	·	·	3	216p/9g	31%	26%	.274	4-seam 98 (29%) · curveball 84 (27%)
Jordan Hicks (R)	·	·	20	today	172p/9g	29%	26%	.274	sinker 100 (35%) · 4-seam 99 (34%)
Tyler Schweitzer (L)	·	·	·	11	127p/5g	12%	19%	.367	slider 88 (37%) · 4-seam 93 (36%)
Bryan Hudson (L)	·	·	·	4	125p/10g	21%	21%	.286	4-seam 91 (65%) · sweeper 78 (35%)
Luis Castillo (R)	12	20	·	1	93p/3g	19%	21%	.348	4-seam 94 (59%) · slider 84 (20%)

Kansas City Royals bullpen 8 arms

Reliever	09/20	09/22	09/23	games since	30-day	K%	Whiff%	xwOBA	Top pitches
Nate Pearson (R)	25	·	·	2	210p/11g	21%	21%	.320	4-seam 98 (48%) · slider 90 (23%)
Connor Thomas (L)	26	·	22	today	208p/12g	16%	19%	.328	sinker 91 (24%) · 4-seam 92 (22%)
Anthony Gose (L)	6	·	17	today	158p/12g	10%	23%	.307	4-seam 96 (62%) · slider 86 (32%)
Alex Lange (R)	·	10	·	1	157p/8g	22%	27%	.342	slider 88 (34%) · sinker 96 (21%)
Jose Cuas (R)	7	·	·	2	148p/10g	25%	25%	.339	sinker 92 (49%) · sweeper 83 (30%)
Steven Cruz (R)	·	·	15	today	147p/9g	26%	26%	.317	4-seam 99 (58%) · cutter 94 (33%)
Craig Kimbrel (R)	·	·	·	6	126p/8g	20%	21%	.321	4-seam 94 (55%) · sinker 94 (15%)
Nolan Hoffman (R)	5	17	·	1	113p/9g	18%	16%	.326	sinker 93 (33%) · cutter 89 (20%)