CALIBRATE BASEBALL Back to the record game prep, generated 2026-09-25 23:09 UTC

Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox

2026-09-25, 7:40 PM ET, Rate Field. Sean Burke (R) against Tomoyuki Sugano (R). Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-09-24.

What decides tonight

Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.

Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP)

2436 pitches, K% 15% vs LHB (353 BF) / 13% vs RHB (278 BF)

28 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 88 pitches (IQR 82–93, 28 starts) · fastball -0.5 mph late (15 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%414%
BB%886%
CSW%323%
Whiff%1018%
Chase%2228%
xwOBA vs3.380
Hard-hit%1444%
GB%3038%
1st-pitch strike%4060%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.4
recent starts, K (n=5)
408/28
ATL
409/02
BAL
509/09
NYY
209/14
SD
509/20
SEA

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
splitter51226%15%86.9+6-11165229%21%37%26%22%.306-0.1
4-seam50622%19%92.6+15-6241415%23%23%27%45%.410+1.5
sinker46114%25%92.5+11-1323004%24%19%14%63%.445-0.4
cutter26311%11%89.0+6+1249116%21%25%5%32%.477+2.5
sweeper2509%12%83.7+2+9258521%30%22%5%32%.309+0.0
slider2469%12%85.3-0+4260019%19%28%14%30%.313+2.8
curveball19410%6%79.9-9+7269721%22%31%7%18%.325+1.1

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations, catcher view

splitter
4-seam
sinker

Movement

splitter: +6 IVB, -11 HB4-seam: +15 IVB, -6 HBsinker: +11 IVB, -13 HBcutter: +6 IVB, +1 HBsweeper: +2 IVB, +9 HBslider: -0 IVB, +4 HBcurveball: -9 IVB, +7 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

How to attack

  • Hunt the 4-seam early: 15% of his first pitches, only 15% whiffs, 51% in-zone on 0-0.
  • Two strikes: expect the 4-seam (27% of 2-strike pitches vs 21% overall).
  • Lay off the splitter below the zone: 29% whiffs, only 30% of them are strikes.

Sean Burke (RHP)

2791 pitches, K% 25% vs LHB (414 BF) / 25% vs RHB (287 BF)

31 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 92 pitches (IQR 90–98, 26 starts) · fastball +0.0 mph late (26 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.

League percentiles, starter pool

K%7225%
BB%499%
CSW%7228%
Whiff%5123%
Chase%6331%
xwOBA vs65.304
Hard-hit%4139%
GB%1836%
1st-pitch strike%6663%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.7
recent starts, K (n=5)
408/21
NYM
308/26
TEX
609/01
HOU
209/08
PIT
509/19
DET

Arsenal, shape and results

Pitch # vL%vR% MPHIVBHB RPMWhiffCSW Chase 2K use 2K zone xwOBA RV/100
4-seam103338%35%94.8+19-4258421%25%34%49%44%.277-0.9
knuckle-curve56225%14%79.1-14+5245426%31%28%21%38%.250+0.4
slider49610%29%86.6+4+6253231%35%37%16%41%.337-0.1
sinker38912%17%94.7+15-1324049%20%29%9%49%.368+0.3
cutter25812%5%90.0+9+4264426%35%27%4%50%.343-1.4

RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.

Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seam
knuckle-curve
slider

Movement

4-seam: +19 IVB, -4 HBknuckle-curve: -14 IVB, +5 HBslider: +4 IVB, +6 HBsinker: +15 IVB, -13 HBcutter: +9 IVB, +4 HBhorizontal break (in), catcher viewinduced vertical break (in)

Attack plan vs Colorado Rockies

  • Knuckle-curve/slider: top breaking whiffs are Karros (45%), Goodman (40%).
  • Careful with Amador: 87% contact, 10% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.

White Sox bats vs Tomoyuki Sugano

Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAxwOBAK%Chase%Contact%HH%P(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Sam Antonacci (L)437.35913%21%88%36%71%7%≈ n162
2Kyle Teel (L)99.34836%30%68%50%64%14%≈ n123
3Miguel Vargas (R)489.36918%21%81%40%70%10%≈ n216
4Munetaka Murakami (L)377.34736%23%60%54%61%15%≈ n220
5Andrew Benintendi (L)414.31922%33%75%47%58%10%≈ n138
6Tristan Peters (L)416.31818%33%80%36%66%10%≈ n166
7Randal Grichuk (R)96.26123%36%70%42%64%12%≈ n121
8Colson Montgomery (L)438.29138%33%65%44%60%10%≈ n215
9Braden Montgomery (S)257.35116%24%75%43%60%7%≈ n195

Colorado Rockies bats, where our staff attacks

Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.

#BatterPAFB whiffBRK whiffOFF whiffxwOBAChase%Contact%1st-pitch swingP(1+ hit)P(1+ HR)30d contact
1Jake McCarthy (L)40812%31%26%.31937%81%45% n40866%7%≈ n224
2Adael Amador (S)5114%7%16%.26923%87%·66%6%≈ n135
3Hunter Goodman (R)37725%40%27%.33340%69%41% n37765%11%▲ +7% n217
4TJ Rumfield (L)43210%29%21%.33931%83%42% n43369%8%▲ +7% n189
5Kyle Karros (R)30910%45%33%.32924%77%34% n31062%10%≈ n93
6Mickey Moniak (L)34222%35%30%.29944%73%48% n34256%9%▼ -7% n177
7Troy Johnston (L)33222%24%24%.34535%77%40% n33262%7%≈ n121
8Zac Veen (L)6536%38%41%.31141%63%·45%7%≈ n105
9Ezequiel Tovar (R)33520%33%34%.29345%74%51% n33549%7%≈ n147

Colorado Rockies hitters, one card each

One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.

1

Jake McCarthy (L)

P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 7%

FB12%
BRK31%
OFF26%

vs RHP 0.319 xwOBA, K 16% (408 PA)

2

Adael Amador (S)

P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 6%

FB14%
BRK7%
OFF16%

vs RHP 0.269 xwOBA, K 10% (51 PA)

3

Hunter Goodman (R)

P(1+ hit) 65% · P(1+ HR) 11%

FB25%
BRK40%
OFF27%

vs RHP 0.333 xwOBA, K 29% (377 PA)

4

TJ Rumfield (L)

P(1+ hit) 69% · P(1+ HR) 8%

FB10%
BRK29%
OFF21%

vs RHP 0.339 xwOBA, K 14% (432 PA)

5

Kyle Karros (R)

P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 10%

FB10%
BRK45%
OFF33%

vs RHP 0.329 xwOBA, K 21% (309 PA)

6

Mickey Moniak (L)

P(1+ hit) 56% · P(1+ HR) 9%

FB22%
BRK35%
OFF30%

vs RHP 0.299 xwOBA, K 26% (342 PA)

7

Troy Johnston (L)

P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 7%

FB22%
BRK24%
OFF24%

vs RHP 0.345 xwOBA, K 18% (332 PA)

8

Zac Veen (L)

P(1+ hit) 45% · P(1+ HR) 7%

FB36%
BRK38%
OFF41%

vs RHP 0.311 xwOBA, K 37% (65 PA)

9

Ezequiel Tovar (R)

P(1+ hit) 49% · P(1+ HR) 7%

FB20%
BRK33%
OFF34%

vs RHP 0.293 xwOBA, K 23% (335 PA)

Matchups: CWS hitters vs Tomoyuki Sugano

Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is built on them anyway.

1. Sam Antonacci

Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 71% to get a hit and 7% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

2. Kyle Teel

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 10% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 35% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +4 points. (20 swings.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 64% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

3. Miguel Vargas

Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker down-middle on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 17% of the time there, against 7% for a typical hitter — +10 points. (19 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.457 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (36 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 70% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

4. Munetaka Murakami

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 10% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 48% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +17 points. (38 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.503 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (32 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 61% to get a hit and 15% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

5. Andrew Benintendi

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.441 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (32 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

6. Tristan Peters

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.385 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.310 league average in that spot. (32 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 66% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

7. Randal Grichuk

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and away — and he puts 9% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.381 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.261 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 64% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

8. Colson Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 10% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 47% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (101 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 10% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.475 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (19 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

9. Braden Montgomery

Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker off the plate on 6% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 30% of the time there, against 22% for a typical hitter — +8 points. (16 swings.)

Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 10% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.414 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (28 balls in play.)

Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 60% to get a hit and 7% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.

Colorado Rockies: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Kyle Teel — runners went 49-for-62 against him (21% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Jake McCarthy (L)29.9 ft/s13.8% (34/233)runner+1 CF
2Adael Amador (S)·2.8% (1/56)holds·
3Hunter Goodman (R)27.3 ft/s3.5% (11/326)holds·
4TJ Rumfield (L)25.0 ft/s0.4% (0/250)holds+5 1B
5Kyle Karros (R)27.0 ft/s1.7% (3/224)holds+2 3B
6Mickey Moniak (L)28.2 ft/s4.9% (11/227)holds-2 LF
7Troy Johnston (L)26.1 ft/s4.4% (8/188)holds-2 RF
8Zac Veen (L)·8.2% (4/41)occasional·
9Ezequiel Tovar (R)27.9 ft/s3.9% (9/241)holds+0 SS

Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense

Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do not have and did not compute.

Behind the plate: Hunter Goodman — runners went 115-for-135 against him (15% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.

#Batter Sprint Steal rate Threat OAA
1Sam Antonacci (L)28.2 ft/s7.9% (18/222)occasional-5 LF
2Kyle Teel (L)27.0 ft/s1.5% (2/185)holds·
3Miguel Vargas (R)28.3 ft/s5.1% (22/428)holds-2 3B
4Munetaka Murakami (L)27.1 ft/s1.8% (3/207)holds+0 1B
5Andrew Benintendi (L)26.6 ft/s0.7% (1/278)holds·
6Tristan Peters (L)28.7 ft/s3.8% (6/166)holds+9 CF
7Randal Grichuk (R)27.3 ft/s1.4% (1/131)holds·
8Colson Montgomery (L)26.6 ft/s0.8% (1/243)holds+6 SS
9Braden Montgomery (S)28.5 ft/s1.5% (1/121)holds·

Bullpens

Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.

White Sox bullpen 8 arms
Reliever09/2209/2309/24 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Hagen Smith (L)·33·1285p/10g37%35%.2434-seam 94 (47%) · slider 83 (32%)
Sean Newcomb (L)·25·1255p/8g22%20%.3244-seam 95 (45%) · slurve 84 (22%)
Trevor Richards (R)23·18today254p/11g21%20%.3194-seam 91 (60%) · changeup 79 (25%)
Grant Taylor (R)···4216p/9g31%26%.2744-seam 98 (29%) · curveball 84 (27%)
Jordan Hicks (R)·20·1172p/9g29%26%.274sinker 100 (35%) · 4-seam 99 (34%)
Bryan Hudson (L)···5125p/10g21%21%.2864-seam 91 (65%) · sweeper 78 (35%)
Luis Castillo (R)20··293p/3g19%21%.3484-seam 94 (59%) · slider 84 (20%)
Tyler Davis (R)··15today91p/6g21%21%.2944-seam 96 (65%) · slider 89 (29%)
Colorado Rockies bullpen 8 arms
Reliever09/2209/2309/24 games since 30-day K%Whiff%xwOBA Top pitches
Juan Mejia (R)13·10today256p/13g21%23%.3354-seam 96 (57%) · sweeper 83 (41%)
Zach Agnos (R)53··2 heavy247p/7g14%20%.354sweeper 84 (28%) · 4-seam 94 (21%)
Jimmy Herget (R)··49today heavy231p/11g20%23%.330slider 86 (40%) · sweeper 79 (20%)
Nick Frasso (R)11·12today231p/12g22%21%.3274-seam 95 (53%) · changeup 82 (26%)
Mark Manfredi (L)·25·1206p/10g22%20%.3324-seam 94 (61%) · slider 86 (29%)
Jaden Hill (R)·10·1174p/11g21%26%.3144-seam 97 (33%) · changeup 85 (24%)
Jordan Romano (R)··23today168p/11g25%28%.295slider 84 (64%) · 4-seam 93 (36%)
Brennan Bernardino (L)···4161p/12g18%21%.301sinker 91 (46%) · curveball 78 (40%)