CALIBRATE BASEBALLBack to the recordgame prep, generated 2026-09-26 23:38 UTC
Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox
2026-09-26, 7:10 PM ET, Rate Field.
Davis Martin (R) against
Jose Quintana (L).
Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published
boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-09-25.
What decides tonight
Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.
1Our bats highest board probability Sam Antonacci 70%, lowest Tommy Pham 51% (19 points of spread across the nine). see the grid
3Pen posture Us: no flags. Colorado Rockies: 1 on back-to-back days, 2 threw 35+ last time. see bullpens
Run environment board total 9.11, P(over 8.5) 52%. Clears its pre-registered floor only; not distinguishable from climatology, and carries a documented −0.29-run level bias.
Their bats highest board probability Cole Carrigg 12%. see the grid
Air 59°F · 6 mph, across · air 0.1% thinner than a neutral sea-level night. Shown as conditions, not as an edge: this engine's weather layer measured a CRPS change of −0.003 on the runs backtest, which is not distinguishable from zero.
Jose Quintana (LHP)
760 pitches, K% 11% overall (199 BF; split withheld, short side only 47 BF)
10 apps · median 20 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 77 pitches (IQR 73–86, 10 starts) · fastball -1.2 mph late (4 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%111%
BB%449%
CSW%122%
Whiff%2520%
Chase%6932%
xwOBA vs9.360
Hard-hit%7834%
GB%1435%
1st-pitch strike%3660%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.0
recent starts, K (n=5) last start 09/19, 7 days ago
205/07 NYM
205/13 PIT
405/18 TEX
005/24 AZ
209/19 SEA
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
222
20%
33%
89.7
+14
+4
2136
19%
22%
32%
33%
33%
.328
-0.5
changeup
152
4%
26%
85.0
+5
+13
1355
28%
18%
36%
23%
6%
.388
+2.3
sinker
151
34%
15%
89.7
+11
+13
2126
7%
25%
11%
13%
45%
.454
+2.2
curveball
121
14%
17%
78.9
-5
-4
2208
20%
22%
42%
8%
·
.336
+0.0
slurve
111
28%
10%
80.1
+0
-6
2274
27%
24%
34%
23%
27%
.280
+3.6
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations, catcher view
4-seamchangeupsinker
Movement
How to attack
Hunt the 4-seam early: 26% of his first pitches, only 19% whiffs, 61% in-zone on 0-0.
Vs righties he leans changeup (26% of pitches to that side).
Lay off the changeup below the zone: 28% whiffs, only 21% of them are strikes.
Davis Martin (RHP)
2324 pitches, K% 19% vs LHB (355 BF) / 22% vs RHB (255 BF)
28 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 87 pitches (IQR 81–92, 27 starts) · fastball -0.2 mph late (16 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%3320%
BB%677%
CSW%3326%
Whiff%3821%
Chase%6332%
xwOBA vs30.331
Hard-hit%1144%
GB%5443%
1st-pitch strike%1557%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.1
recent starts, K (n=5)
108/09 CLE
308/13 CIN
309/02 HOU
109/09 PIT
609/20 DET
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
610
30%
22%
93.9
+14
-5
2407
20%
25%
26%
30%
40%
.317
+0.1
sinker
431
14%
26%
92.8
+8
-14
2393
6%
20%
26%
12%
58%
.356
-0.7
changeup
333
19%
8%
90.1
+1
-13
2117
13%
19%
36%
15%
39%
.343
-1.1
curveball
330
17%
11%
81.7
-8
+14
2871
39%
32%
29%
15%
32%
.275
+0.1
slider
298
5%
25%
87.1
+1
+5
2603
34%
29%
47%
19%
28%
.290
+0.5
cutter
290
15%
9%
89.7
+7
+2
2574
25%
33%
26%
8%
58%
.408
-0.7
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seamsinkerchangeup
Movement
Attack plan vs Colorado Rockies
Curveball/slider: top breaking whiffs are Norby (43%), Goodman (40%).
Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Tovar (34%), Moniak (30%).
Careful with Amador: 86% contact, 11% K rate vs RHP; pitch to contact at the edges.
White Sox bats vs Jose Quintana
Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
xwOBA
K%
Chase%
Contact%
HH%
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Miguel Vargas (R)
206
.419
17%
21%
85%
53%
67%
11%
≈ n216
2
Tommy Pham (R)
24
.334
29%
22%
66%
58%
51%
8%
≈ n21
3
Randal Grichuk (R)
173
.380
22%
36%
82%
56%
68%
14%
≈ n128
4
Munetaka Murakami (L)
163
.360
36%
19%
61%
60%
58%
18%
≈ n217
5
Brenton Doyle (R)
93
.271
30%
37%
68%
41%
53%
9%
≈ n92
6
Kyle Teel (L)
37
.296
35%
34%
66%
44%
66%
11%
≈ n127
7
Sam Antonacci (L)
110
.288
21%
25%
87%
23%
70%
7%
▲ +5% n159
8
Luisangel Acuña (R)
106
.257
16%
34%
76%
41%
57%
7%
≈ n26
9
Tristan Peters (L)
66
.307
20%
24%
78%
21%
65%
10%
≈ n165
Colorado Rockies bats, where our staff attacks
Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
FB whiff
BRK whiff
OFF whiff
xwOBA
Chase%
Contact%
1st-pitch swing
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Jake McCarthy (L)
412
11%
32%
26%
.316
37%
81%
44% n412
66%
7%
≈ n220
2
Cole Carrigg (S)
215
16%
38%
26%
.336
30%
78%
37% n215
66%
12%
≈ n250
3
Hunter Goodman (R)
381
25%
40%
27%
.334
40%
69%
41% n381
64%
12%
▲ +7% n219
4
TJ Rumfield (L)
434
10%
29%
21%
.340
31%
83%
42% n435
66%
8%
▲ +8% n190
5
Connor Norby (R)
243
21%
43%
30%
.293
30%
71%
46% n243
63%
8%
▲ +6% n202
6
Adael Amador (S)
55
15%
6%
16%
.267
22%
86%
·
66%
6%
≈ n143
7
Mickey Moniak (L)
344
22%
35%
30%
.299
44%
73%
48% n344
54%
9%
▼ -6% n173
8
Brett Sullivan (L)
170
10%
22%
19%
.280
35%
86%
35% n170
55%
6%
≈ n60
9
Ezequiel Tovar (R)
338
20%
34%
34%
.290
45%
74%
51% n338
53%
8%
≈ n155
Colorado Rockies hitters, one card each
One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.
1
Jake McCarthy (L)
P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 7%
FB11%
BRK32%
OFF26%
vs RHP 0.316 xwOBA, K 17% (412 PA)
2
Cole Carrigg (S)
P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 12%
FB16%
BRK38%
OFF26%
vs RHP 0.336 xwOBA, K 22% (215 PA)
3
Hunter Goodman (R)
P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 12%
FB25%
BRK40%
OFF27%
vs RHP 0.334 xwOBA, K 28% (381 PA)
4
TJ Rumfield (L)
P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 8%
FB10%
BRK29%
OFF21%
vs RHP 0.340 xwOBA, K 14% (434 PA)
5
Connor Norby (R)
P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 8%
FB21%
BRK43%
OFF30%
vs RHP 0.293 xwOBA, K 30% (243 PA)
6
Adael Amador (S)
P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 6%
FB15%
BRK6%
OFF16%
vs RHP 0.267 xwOBA, K 11% (55 PA)
7
Mickey Moniak (L)
P(1+ hit) 54% · P(1+ HR) 9%
FB22%
BRK35%
OFF30%
vs RHP 0.299 xwOBA, K 26% (344 PA)
8
Brett Sullivan (L)
P(1+ hit) 55% · P(1+ HR) 6%
FB10%
BRK22%
OFF19%
vs RHP 0.280 xwOBA, K 19% (170 PA)
9
Ezequiel Tovar (R)
P(1+ hit) 53% · P(1+ HR) 8%
FB20%
BRK34%
OFF34%
vs RHP 0.290 xwOBA, K 23% (338 PA)
Matchups: CWS hitters vs Jose Quintana
Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Miguel Vargas
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and away — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.519 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.261 league average in that spot. (14 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 67% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
2. Tommy Pham
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 51% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
0 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
3. Randal Grichuk
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and away — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.571 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.261 league average in that spot. (19 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 68% to get a hit and 14% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
4. Munetaka Murakami
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.828 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 18% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
5. Brenton Doyle
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.418 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (13 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 53% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
6. Kyle Teel
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 66% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
7. Sam Antonacci
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 70% to get a hit and 7% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
8. Luisangel Acuña
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 57% to get a hit and 7% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
9. Tristan Peters
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 65% to get a hit and 10% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
Colorado Rockies: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Kyle Teel — runners went 49-for-62 against him (21% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Jake McCarthy (L)
29.9 ft/s
13.8% (34/233)
runner
+1 CF
2
Cole Carrigg (S)
28.9 ft/s
7.7% (10/123)
occasional
+2 CF
3
Hunter Goodman (R)
27.3 ft/s
3.5% (11/326)
holds
·
4
TJ Rumfield (L)
25.0 ft/s
0.4% (0/253)
holds
+5 1B
5
Connor Norby (R)
28.1 ft/s
7.4% (17/225)
occasional
+5 1B
6
Adael Amador (S)
·
2.7% (1/57)
holds
·
7
Mickey Moniak (L)
28.2 ft/s
4.9% (11/227)
holds
-2 LF
8
Brett Sullivan (L)
28.2 ft/s
4.2% (3/77)
holds
·
9
Ezequiel Tovar (R)
27.9 ft/s
3.9% (9/241)
holds
+0 SS
Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Miguel Vargas (R)
28.3 ft/s
5.1% (22/428)
holds
-2 3B
2
Tommy Pham (R)
·
2.0% (3/184)
holds
·
3
Randal Grichuk (R)
27.3 ft/s
1.4% (1/131)
holds
·
4
Munetaka Murakami (L)
27.1 ft/s
1.8% (3/209)
holds
+0 1B
5
Brenton Doyle (R)
28.7 ft/s
13.2% (33/237)
runner
·
6
Kyle Teel (L)
27.0 ft/s
1.5% (2/188)
holds
·
7
Sam Antonacci (L)
28.2 ft/s
8.2% (19/225)
occasional
-5 LF
8
Luisangel Acuña (R)
29.8 ft/s
15.7% (30/176)
runner
-3 SS
9
Tristan Peters (L)
28.7 ft/s
3.8% (6/166)
holds
+9 CF
Bullpens
Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three
most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates
percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.