CALIBRATE BASEBALLBack to the recordgame prep, generated 2026-09-27 17:39 UTC
Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox
2026-09-27, 3:10 PM ET, Rate Field.
Anthony Kay (L) against
Kyle Freeland (L).
Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published
boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-09-26.
What decides tonight
Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.
1Our bats highest board probability Sam Antonacci 69%, lowest Brenton Doyle 48% (21 points of spread across the nine). see the grid
3Pen posture Us: 1 on back-to-back days, 1 threw 35+ last time. Colorado Rockies: 1 on back-to-back days, 2 threw 35+ last time. see bullpens
Their bats highest board probability Hunter Goodman 13%. see the grid
Run environment board total 9.21, P(over 8.5) 53%. Clears its pre-registered floor only; not distinguishable from climatology, and carries a documented −0.29-run level bias.
Air 63°F · 6 mph, across · air 1.0% thinner than a neutral sea-level night. Shown as conditions, not as an edge: this engine's weather layer measured a CRPS change of −0.003 on the runs backtest, which is not distinguishable from zero.
Kyle Freeland (LHP)
2125 pitches, K% 20% vs LHB (160 BF) / 17% vs RHB (434 BF)
25 apps · median 23 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 4) · exits at 87 pitches (IQR 81–91, 25 starts) · fastball +0.2 mph late (9 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%2018%
BB%955%
CSW%4527%
Whiff%3020%
Chase%8534%
xwOBA vs13.353
Hard-hit%1244%
GB%4441%
1st-pitch strike%8365%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.2
recent starts, K (n=5)
308/08 STL
208/14 SF
508/19 LAD
109/15 SD
209/22 AZ
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
504
24%
24%
91.3
+14
+7
2380
10%
24%
26%
25%
42%
.389
+2.4
knuckle-curve
466
16%
24%
82.4
-5
-0
2364
32%
29%
41%
29%
30%
.334
+2.1
cutter
450
19%
22%
87.6
+9
-1
2374
18%
28%
26%
12%
64%
.380
+0.5
changeup
286
3%
17%
86.2
+5
+13
1650
20%
21%
36%
14%
30%
.366
+1.2
sweeper
213
17%
8%
82.7
-3
-9
2322
28%
31%
42%
15%
38%
.253
-1.9
sinker
206
20%
6%
91.1
+7
+14
2320
12%
27%
33%
4%
56%
.379
+0.9
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations, catcher view
4-seamknuckle-curvecutter
Movement
How to attack
Hunt the 4-seam early: 26% of his first pitches, only 10% whiffs, 58% in-zone on 0-0.
Lay off the knuckle-curve below the zone: 32% whiffs, only 38% of them are strikes.
Two strikes: expect the knuckle-curve (29% of 2-strike pitches vs 22% overall).
Anthony Kay (LHP)
2714 pitches, K% 27% vs LHB (190 BF) / 15% vs RHB (501 BF)
32 apps · median 22 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 3) · exits at 88 pitches (IQR 83–92, 30 starts) · fastball -0.7 mph late (16 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%2218%
BB%618%
CSW%2726%
Whiff%4222%
Chase%7533%
xwOBA vs20.344
Hard-hit%4239%
GB%5543%
1st-pitch strike%3460%
published K forecast: E[K] 4.0
recent starts, K (n=5)
508/31 HOU
309/05 MIN
209/11 STL
309/16 CLE
409/22 KC
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
sweeper
631
31%
20%
82.6
+0
-13
2441
34%
34%
24%
16%
32%
.314
+0.3
4-seam
595
16%
24%
95.9
+15
+7
2351
17%
24%
33%
26%
43%
.370
+0.2
sinker
487
38%
10%
95.3
+5
+16
2263
14%
26%
37%
15%
59%
.351
-0.4
cutter
449
10%
19%
91.7
+7
-1
2392
17%
22%
32%
9%
30%
.440
+0.5
changeup
380
0%
19%
86.1
+0
+14
1750
30%
19%
37%
17%
17%
.254
+1.0
slider
172
6%
6%
86.3
-4
-4
2564
27%
20%
44%
17%
25%
.291
+2.8
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations and movement (4 charts)
sweeper4-seamsinker
Movement
Attack plan vs Colorado Rockies
Sweeper/slider: top breaking whiffs are Goodman (45%), Norby (35%).
Changeup: top offspeed whiffs are Beck (46%), Goodman (42%).
Careful with Amador: 88% contact, 18% K rate vs LHP; pitch to contact at the edges.
White Sox bats vs Kyle Freeland
Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
xwOBA
K%
Chase%
Contact%
HH%
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Randal Grichuk (R)
175
.381
22%
36%
82%
56%
67%
15%
≈ n133
2
Tommy Pham (R)
26
.324
31%
25%
64%
54%
56%
9%
≈ n25
3
Munetaka Murakami (L)
166
.360
36%
19%
61%
60%
59%
20%
≈ n216
4
Brenton Doyle (R)
94
.275
30%
37%
69%
42%
48%
11%
≈ n87
5
Sam Antonacci (L)
112
.287
21%
25%
87%
24%
69%
8%
≈ n163
6
Braden Montgomery (S)
100
.270
30%
34%
68%
34%
58%
7%
≈ n185
7
Colson Montgomery (L)
194
.318
30%
32%
69%
36%
59%
12%
≈ n218
8
Luisangel Acuña (R)
107
.270
16%
33%
76%
41%
52%
8%
≈ n22
9
Drew Romo (S)
38
.273
21%
30%
79%
21%
53%
6%
≈ n22
Colorado Rockies bats, where our staff attacks
Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Batting order as posted. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
#
Batter
PA
FB whiff
BRK whiff
OFF whiff
xwOBA
Chase%
Contact%
1st-pitch swing
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
1
Jake McCarthy (L)
179
12%
29%
·
.339
37%
81%
49% n179
67%
9%
≈ n216
2
Connor Norby (R)
134
14%
35%
38%
.333
25%
77%
40% n134
63%
9%
▲ +6% n196
3
Hunter Goodman (R)
186
22%
45%
42%
.322
40%
67%
44% n186
66%
13%
▲ +7% n220
4
Cole Carrigg (S)
153
17%
34%
29%
.293
45%
77%
41% n153
67%
12%
≈ n250
5
Kyle Karros (R)
159
13%
34%
36%
.362
27%
77%
30% n160
64%
12%
≈ n102
6
Adael Amador (S)
34
10%
17%
·
.293
26%
88%
·
67%
8%
≈ n152
7
Troy Johnston (L)
110
14%
27%
·
.285
39%
79%
40% n110
62%
6%
≈ n118
8
Jordan Beck (R)
95
18%
30%
46%
.296
38%
72%
·
54%
6%
≈ n92
9
Ezequiel Tovar (R)
168
19%
32%
40%
.263
40%
74%
45% n168
56%
9%
≈ n154
Colorado Rockies hitters, one card each
One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.
1
Jake McCarthy (L)
P(1+ hit) 67% · P(1+ HR) 9%
FB12%
BRK29%
OFF·
vs LHP 0.339 xwOBA, K 15% (179 PA)
2
Connor Norby (R)
P(1+ hit) 63% · P(1+ HR) 9%
FB14%
BRK35%
OFF38%
vs LHP 0.333 xwOBA, K 25% (134 PA)
3
Hunter Goodman (R)
P(1+ hit) 66% · P(1+ HR) 13%
FB22%
BRK45%
OFF42%
vs LHP 0.322 xwOBA, K 35% (186 PA)
4
Cole Carrigg (S)
P(1+ hit) 67% · P(1+ HR) 12%
FB17%
BRK34%
OFF29%
vs LHP 0.293 xwOBA, K 26% (153 PA)
5
Kyle Karros (R)
P(1+ hit) 64% · P(1+ HR) 12%
FB13%
BRK34%
OFF36%
vs LHP 0.362 xwOBA, K 19% (159 PA)
6
Adael Amador (S)
P(1+ hit) 67% · P(1+ HR) 8%
FB10%
BRK17%
OFF·
only 34 PA vs LHP — too few to split
7
Troy Johnston (L)
P(1+ hit) 62% · P(1+ HR) 6%
FB14%
BRK27%
OFF·
vs LHP 0.285 xwOBA, K 17% (110 PA)
8
Jordan Beck (R)
P(1+ hit) 54% · P(1+ HR) 6%
FB18%
BRK30%
OFF46%
vs LHP 0.296 xwOBA, K 35% (95 PA)
9
Ezequiel Tovar (R)
P(1+ hit) 56% · P(1+ HR) 9%
FB19%
BRK32%
OFF40%
vs LHP 0.263 xwOBA, K 30% (168 PA)
Matchups: CWS hitters vs Kyle Freeland
Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Randal Grichuk
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.644 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (19 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 67% to get a hit and 15% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
2. Tommy Pham
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 56% to get a hit and 9% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
3. Munetaka Murakami
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 8% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 39% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +8 points. (15 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 9% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.834 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (11 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 20% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
4. Brenton Doyle
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.431 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (14 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 48% to get a hit and 11% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
5. Sam Antonacci
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 69% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
6. Braden Montgomery
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 58% to get a hit and 7% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
7. Colson Montgomery
Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker off the plate on 10% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 38% of the time there, against 22% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (38 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 9% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.453 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.311 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 59% to get a hit and 12% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
8. Luisangel Acuña
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 52% to get a hit and 8% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
9. Drew Romo
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
Tonight's published, gradeable numbers for this batter: 53% to get a hit and 6% to homer. Those are what the record grades — the notes above only explain why.
Colorado Rockies: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Drew Romo — runners went 37-for-50 against him (26% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Jake McCarthy (L)
29.9 ft/s
13.6% (34/236)
runner
+1 CF
2
Connor Norby (R)
28.1 ft/s
7.3% (17/226)
occasional
+5 1B
3
Hunter Goodman (R)
27.3 ft/s
3.5% (11/326)
holds
·
4
Cole Carrigg (S)
28.9 ft/s
7.5% (10/126)
occasional
+2 CF
5
Kyle Karros (R)
27.0 ft/s
1.7% (3/225)
holds
+2 3B
6
Adael Amador (S)
·
2.6% (1/59)
holds
·
7
Troy Johnston (L)
26.1 ft/s
4.4% (8/188)
holds
-2 RF
8
Jordan Beck (R)
28.2 ft/s
9.3% (23/238)
occasional
·
9
Ezequiel Tovar (R)
27.9 ft/s
3.8% (9/242)
holds
+0 SS
Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.3% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Hunter Goodman — runners went 115-for-136 against him (15% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
#
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
1
Randal Grichuk (R)
27.3 ft/s
1.4% (1/132)
holds
·
2
Tommy Pham (R)
·
2.0% (3/184)
holds
·
3
Munetaka Murakami (L)
27.1 ft/s
1.8% (3/209)
holds
+0 1B
4
Brenton Doyle (R)
28.7 ft/s
13.2% (33/237)
runner
·
5
Sam Antonacci (L)
28.2 ft/s
8.1% (19/226)
occasional
-5 LF
6
Braden Montgomery (S)
28.5 ft/s
1.5% (1/123)
holds
·
7
Colson Montgomery (L)
26.6 ft/s
0.8% (1/243)
holds
+6 SS
8
Luisangel Acuña (R)
29.8 ft/s
15.8% (30/176)
runner
-3 SS
9
Drew Romo (S)
26.1 ft/s
2.8% (1/55)
holds
·
Bullpens
Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three
most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates
percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.