Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Sam Antonacci
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
0 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
2. Tommy Pham
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
1 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
3. Munetaka Murakami
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 17% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 39% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +8 points. (15 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.834 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (11 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
1 for 4 lifetime. At 4 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
3. Miguel Vargas
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.519 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.261 league average in that spot. (14 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
2 for 12 lifetime. At 12 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
3. Randal Grichuk
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle-middle on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 15% of the time there, against 11% for a typical hitter — +5 points. (17 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.686 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (20 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
5 for 12 lifetime. At 12 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
3. Kyle Teel
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
0 for 3 lifetime. At 3 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
4. Andrew Benintendi
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
6. Braden Montgomery
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
2 for 8 lifetime. At 8 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
6. Colson Montgomery
Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker off the plate on 11% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 39% of the time there, against 22% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (38 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.453 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.311 league average in that spot. (18 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
2 for 11 lifetime. At 11 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.