Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Sam Antonacci
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle and in on 2% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 11% of the time there, against 7% for a typical hitter — +4 points. (24 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.401 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.272 league average in that spot. (21 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
1 for 12 lifetime. At 12 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
2. Tommy Pham
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
3. Munetaka Murakami
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 15% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 48% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +18 points. (39 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and in — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.554 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.319 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
1 for 6 lifetime. At 6 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
3. Miguel Vargas
Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker middle and away on 3% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 16% of the time there, against 9% for a typical hitter — +8 points. (15 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.457 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (36 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
5 for 12 lifetime. At 12 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
3. Randal Grichuk
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and away — and he puts 6% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.381 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.261 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
3. Kyle Teel
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 15% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 35% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +4 points. (20 swings.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
0 for 7 lifetime. At 7 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
4. Andrew Benintendi
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam middle and in on 2% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 22% of the time there, against 7% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (17 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.414 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.329 league average in that spot. (24 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
4 for 9 lifetime. At 9 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
6. Braden Montgomery
Edge: pitcherHe throws the sinker off the plate on 4% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 30% of the time there, against 22% for a typical hitter — +8 points. (16 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 8% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.449 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (31 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
2 for 8 lifetime. At 8 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
6. Colson Montgomery
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 15% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 47% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (101 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.458 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.356 league average in that spot. (19 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
0 for 9 lifetime. At 9 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.