CALIBRATE BASEBALLBack to the recordgame prep, generated 2026-10-07 13:08 UTC
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox
2026-10-07, , Rate Field.
Sean Newcomb (L) against
Daniel Espino (R).
Every number derives from the public Statcast store and the engine's published
boards. Charts are code-drawn. Probabilities, not picks. Statcast through 2026-10-06.
What decides tonight
Every number below is a probability this engine published before first pitch and grades that night, or a plain count. No scouting verdicts are ranked here — those live in the panels and carry their own sample sizes.
Their starterDaniel Espino, listed as an opener — 14 apps, median 4 BF; expect the pen early — the bulk arm is the real matchup.
Pen posture Us: 2 threw 35+ last time. Cleveland Guardians: no flags. see bullpens
Air 68°F · 7 mph, across · air 2.0% thinner than a neutral sea-level night. Shown as conditions, not as an edge: this engine's weather layer measured a CRPS change of −0.003 on the runs backtest, which is not distinguishable from zero.
Daniel Espino (RHP)limited 2026 sample
273 pitches, K% 38% overall (65 BF; split withheld, short side only 32 BF)
Opener usage: in a typical outing he does not get through the order once (14 appearances, median 4 batters). The bulk of the game is very likely Joey Cantillo — behind the opener in 3 of 3 recent opener games. His panel is below; prep him, not this arsenal.
14 apps · median 4 BF · reaches the order 1.0× (max 1) · exits at 26 pitches (IQR 22–26, 3 starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%10038%
BB%2211%
CSW%9732%
Whiff%9834%
Chase%5531%
xwOBA vs93.265
Hard-hit%6536%
GB%1936%
1st-pitch strike%1357%
recent starts, K (n=3) last start 09/24, 13 days ago
209/12 MIN
109/18 ATH
209/24 BOS
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
169
64%
59%
98.8
+17
-7
2437
37%
34%
28%
60%
36%
.275
-1.2
slider
79
21%
37%
92.0
+4
+4
2332
28%
27%
42%
25%
·
.292
+1.4
curveball
25
14%
4%
75.9
-16
+11
2506
·
40%
·
14%
·
·
·
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations, catcher view
4-seamslidercurveball
Movement
How to attack
Vs righties he leans slider (37% of pitches to that side).
Joey Cantillo (LHP)
2752 pitches, K% 17% vs LHB (174 BF) / 28% vs RHB (516 BF)
33 apps · median 21 BF · reaches the order 3.0× (max 4) · exits at 88 pitches (IQR 80–93, 30 starts) · fastball -1.0 mph late (8 deep starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%6925%
BB%1512%
CSW%8830%
Whiff%8628%
Chase%2127%
xwOBA vs59.309
Hard-hit%3939%
GB%6745%
1st-pitch strike%1056%
recent starts, K (n=5) last start 09/07, 30 days ago
708/15 SD
508/21 COL
108/26 LAA
609/02 TOR
309/07 BAL
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
900
35%
32%
92.2
+16
+7
1876
13%
27%
18%
26%
50%
.374
+1.0
curveball
843
24%
33%
80.0
-17
-10
2657
35%
33%
35%
40%
39%
.243
-0.5
changeup
670
14%
28%
81.0
+13
+9
1446
38%
30%
26%
29%
41%
.271
+0.1
cutter
223
16%
6%
87.1
+7
-2
2006
26%
30%
26%
2%
·
.385
+0.0
slider
112
11%
2%
82.8
-6
-4
2323
26%
30%
37%
3%
54%
.381
+0.7
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations, catcher view
4-seamcurveballchangeup
Movement
Likely bulk starter behind Daniel Espino
Hunt the 4-seam early: 38% of his first pitches, only 13% whiffs, 51% in-zone on 0-0.
K rate splits 17% vs LHB / 28% vs RHB: the left-handed side of the platoon wears him better.
Lay off the curveball below the zone: 35% whiffs, only 41% of them are strikes.
Sean Newcomb (LHP)
1482 pitches, K% 21% vs LHB (149 BF) / 23% vs RHB (223 BF)
Opener usage: in a typical outing he does not get through the order once (60 appearances, median 6 batters, deepest 2×). Prep the second and third look against the bullpen, not this arsenal — see Bullpens.
60 apps · median 6 BF · reaches the order 1.0× (max 2) · exits at 32 pitches (IQR 26–37, 6 starts). Fade is measured inside each start on nights that reached 85 pitches, so it is not flattered by the short outings.
League percentiles, starter pool
K%5223%
BB%538%
CSW%7729%
Whiff%3921%
Chase%1827%
xwOBA vs41.322
Hard-hit%4639%
GB%7146%
1st-pitch strike%4261%
recent starts, K (n=5) last start 09/14, 23 days ago
208/14 DET
008/19 CHC
308/23 NYM
409/12 STL
009/14 CLE
Arsenal, shape and results
Pitch
#
vL%
vR%
MPH
IVB
HB
RPM
Whiff
CSW
Chase
2K use
2K zone
xwOBA
RV/100
4-seam
580
33%
43%
94.9
+14
+11
2258
25%
30%
30%
44%
54%
.304
-1.4
slurve
459
31%
31%
82.9
-5
-18
2855
31%
35%
27%
31%
37%
.277
-1.0
sinker
308
36%
12%
93.6
+4
+17
2260
7%
24%
26%
13%
51%
.407
+0.3
curveball
60
0%
6%
80.8
-14
-13
2953
19%
18%
21%
9%
46%
.123
-3.4
RV/100 is run value per 100 pitches from the pitcher's
side, so negative is good (a curveball at −1.3 costs the
pitcher runs even if it misses bats — a real tension worth reading, not a
contradiction). Whiff, chase and xwOBA are computed on this pitcher's own
pitches this season; low-usage pitches carry small samples.
Locations and movement (4 charts)
4-seamslurvesinker
Movement
Attack plan vs Cleveland Guardians
Slurve/curveball: top breaking whiffs are Lowe (35%), Adell (34%).
Careful with Kwan: 91% contact, 13% K rate vs LHP; pitch to contact at the edges.
White Sox bats vs Daniel Espino
Season quality vs tonight's starter hand, percentile-colored vs league: red elite, paper average, blue poor. P columns are the engine's published board numbers for this game. Lineup projected from recent starts; the posted order replaces it once teams announce. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
Batter
PA
xwOBA
K%
Chase%
Contact%
HH%
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
Sam Antonacci (L)
444
.364
13%
21%
88%
36%
·
·
≈ n169
Tommy Pham (R)
6
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
≈ n31
Munetaka Murakami (L)
384
.351
36%
23%
60%
55%
·
·
≈ n227
Miguel Vargas (R)
496
.367
18%
21%
81%
40%
·
·
≈ n213
Randal Grichuk (R)
102
.255
23%
37%
71%
39%
·
·
≈ n138
Kyle Teel (L)
105
.340
35%
30%
68%
49%
·
·
≈ n135
Andrew Benintendi (L)
421
.319
22%
33%
75%
47%
·
·
≈ n155
Braden Montgomery (S)
262
.351
16%
25%
75%
43%
·
·
≈ n191
Colson Montgomery (L)
442
.289
38%
33%
65%
44%
·
·
≈ n227
Cleveland Guardians bats, where our staff attacks
Whiff by pitch group vs our starter's hand. Blue cells are the attack zones. P columns are the published board numbers. Lineup projected from recent starts; the posted order replaces it once teams announce. 30d contact is the last-30-day contact rate minus the season rate; an arrow is drawn only when the move clears two standard errors of its own noise, and n is the recent swing count.
Batter
PA
FB whiff
BRK whiff
OFF whiff
xwOBA
Chase%
Contact%
1st-pitch swing
P(1+ hit)
P(1+ HR)
30d contact
Steven Kwan (L)
205
4%
17%
20%
.323
20%
91%
8% n205
·
·
≈ n173
Chase DeLauter (L)
179
13%
26%
18%
.306
25%
83%
32% n179
·
·
≈ n144
José Ramírez (S)
164
8%
12%
17%
.366
28%
90%
17% n164
·
·
≈ n188
Jo Adell (R)
191
19%
34%
44%
.400
37%
72%
36% n191
·
·
≈ n235
Travis Bazzana (L)
166
16%
29%
·
.246
28%
80%
33% n166
·
·
≈ n194
Nathaniel Lowe (L)
49
19%
35%
·
.256
35%
73%
·
·
·
≈ n146
Angel Martínez (S)
152
13%
22%
19%
.338
40%
83%
36% n152
·
·
≈ n152
Angel Genao (S)
44
21%
·
·
.287
29%
71%
·
·
·
≈ n114
David Fry (R)
148
20%
30%
31%
.280
26%
75%
24% n148
·
·
≈ n75
Cleveland Guardians hitters, one card each
One card per hitter: the published probabilities this engine grades tonight, his whiff shape by pitch group, and his season against this starter's hand with the sample stated. Times-through-order and leverage splits are deliberately absent — at a median 45 plate appearances the third-time-through number carries a standard error roughly three times the effect it would be claiming.
No batter probabilities are published for this game yet — those publish once the lineup posts.
Steven Kwan (L)
FB4%
BRK17%
OFF20%
vs LHP 0.323 xwOBA, K 13% (205 PA)
Chase DeLauter (L)
FB13%
BRK26%
OFF18%
vs LHP 0.306 xwOBA, K 20% (179 PA)
José Ramírez (S)
FB8%
BRK12%
OFF17%
vs LHP 0.366 xwOBA, K 7% (164 PA)
Jo Adell (R)
FB19%
BRK34%
OFF44%
vs LHP 0.400 xwOBA, K 22% (191 PA)
Travis Bazzana (L)
FB16%
BRK29%
OFF·
vs LHP 0.246 xwOBA, K 25% (166 PA)
Nathaniel Lowe (L)
FB19%
BRK35%
OFF·
vs LHP 0.256 xwOBA, K 20% (49 PA)
Angel Martínez (S)
FB13%
BRK22%
OFF19%
vs LHP 0.338 xwOBA, K 17% (152 PA)
Angel Genao (S)
FB21%
BRK·
OFF·
vs LHP 0.287 xwOBA, K 16% (44 PA)
David Fry (R)
FB20%
BRK30%
OFF31%
vs LHP 0.280 xwOBA, K 30% (148 PA)
Matchups: CWS hitters vs Daniel Espino
Where this starter's actual usage meets each hitter's
measured holes and damage, on the same map. An edge is only reported
where the pitcher genuinely goes — a hole against a pitch he does not
throw is not a matchup — and only where the rate is measurably worse than
league for a typical hitter in that same spot. Every line carries its
sample size. Batter-versus-pitcher history is shown as trivia and
is not used in any of it: the samples that actually occur are
far too small to support a conclusion, and most public matchup content is
built on them anyway.
1. Sam Antonacci
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.383 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.329 league average in that spot. (45 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
0 for 1 lifetime. At 1 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
2. Tommy Pham
Not enough of a track record in the spots this pitcher uses to say anything useful. No verdict rather than a guess.
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
3. Munetaka Murakami
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 29% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 48% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +18 points. (39 swings.)
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.503 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (32 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
0 for 1 lifetime. At 1 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
3. Miguel Vargas
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.457 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (36 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
1 for 2 lifetime. At 2 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
3. Randal Grichuk
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes down and away — and he puts 9% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.381 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.261 league average in that spot. (10 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
3. Kyle Teel
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 29% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 35% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +4 points. (20 swings.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
0 for 1 lifetime. At 1 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
4. Andrew Benintendi
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes up-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.414 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.329 league average in that spot. (24 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
0 for 1 lifetime. At 1 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
6. Braden Montgomery
Edge: batterWhen the ball goes middle-middle — and he puts 7% of his pitches there — the batter does real damage: 0.449 expected value per ball in play, against a 0.393 league average in that spot. (31 balls in play.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
6. Colson Montgomery
Edge: pitcherHe throws the four-seam off the plate on 29% of his pitches to this side. The batter swings and misses 47% of the time there, against 31% for a typical hitter — +16 points. (101 swings.)
No published probability for this batter tonight, so the notes above are observations, not predictions.
0 for 1 lifetime. At 1 plate appearances this is trivia, not evidence — it is shown because people ask for it, and it is not used anywhere in the analysis above.
Cleveland Guardians: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.2% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: Kyle Teel — runners went 49-for-62 against him (21% caught). That is mostly the pitcher: measured split-half reliability for a catcher’s own caught-stealing rate is +0.59, and the spread between catchers is smaller than the sampling noise. Read it as what happened, not as a rating.
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
Steven Kwan (L)
27.0 ft/s
4.5% (26/578)
holds
+7 LF
Chase DeLauter (L)
26.7 ft/s
4.1% (9/228)
holds
·
José Ramírez (S)
27.6 ft/s
15.7% (68/419)
runner
+5 3B
Jo Adell (R)
28.1 ft/s
2.6% (9/368)
holds
-4 RF
Travis Bazzana (L)
28.4 ft/s
7.6% (15/191)
occasional
-5 2B
Nathaniel Lowe (L)
25.6 ft/s
0.6% (1/332)
holds
·
Angel Martínez (S)
27.7 ft/s
7.6% (18/231)
occasional
+1 LF
Angel Genao (S)
·
2.9% (1/52)
holds
·
David Fry (R)
26.3 ft/s
1.7% (1/103)
holds
·
Chicago White Sox: the running game and the defense
Sprint speed says who can run; attempt rate says who
will. Rate is steals of second per time on first, shrunk toward the
league’s 5.2% at 22 opportunities, with the raw count beside
it. Verdict needs 15+ times on first. Sprint speed and Outs Above Average are
Baseball Savant leaderboard metrics — measured from tracking data we do
not have and did not compute.
Behind the plate: David Fry — only 4 attempts against him, too few to say anything.
Batter
Sprint
Steal rate
Threat
OAA
Sam Antonacci (L)
28.2 ft/s
8.0% (19/231)
occasional
-5 LF
Tommy Pham (R)
·
2.0% (3/185)
holds
·
Munetaka Murakami (L)
27.1 ft/s
1.7% (3/216)
holds
+0 1B
Miguel Vargas (R)
28.3 ft/s
5.0% (22/444)
holds
-2 3B
Randal Grichuk (R)
27.3 ft/s
1.4% (1/134)
holds
·
Kyle Teel (L)
27.0 ft/s
1.4% (2/198)
holds
·
Andrew Benintendi (L)
26.6 ft/s
0.7% (1/281)
holds
·
Braden Montgomery (S)
28.5 ft/s
1.4% (1/127)
holds
·
Colson Montgomery (L)
26.6 ft/s
0.8% (1/247)
holds
+6 SS
Bullpens
Sorted by 30-day workload. Day cells show pitches on the three
most recent league game dates; dark means heavy recent use. Season rates
percentile-colored vs all pitchers with 150+ pitches.